New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing22/27, 333 YDS, 2 TD
- Audric EstimeRushing14 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- Chris OlaveReceiving8 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
Titans- Cam WardPassing21/40, 251 YDS, 2 TD
- Tony PollardRushing18 CAR, 85 YDS
- Chig OkonkwoReceiving3 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:44Audric Estime 32 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)34–26
- Q46:22Kevin Austin Jr. 10 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)27–26
- Q412:50Joey Slye 58 Yd Field Goal20–26
- Q31:51Charlie Smyth 57 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q37:20Joey Slye 28 Yd Field Goal17–23
- Q310:34Chris Olave 19 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)17–20
- Q20:13Elic Ayomanor 7 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)10–20
- Q23:51Chase Young 33 Yd Fumble Recovery by Chase Young For 33 Yd Loss (Charlie Smyth Kick)10–13
- Q25:53Charlie Smyth 56 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q212:57Chig Okonkwo 43 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)0–13
- Q14:31Joey Slye 38 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q19:10Joey Slye 50 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:51Chase Young 33 Yd Fumble Recovery by Chase Young For 33 Yd Loss (Charlie Smyth Kick)NO 10 – 13 TEN · NO 20% → 41% +20NO 20% → 41%+20 pts
- Q20:13Elic Ayomanor 7 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)NO 10 – 20 TEN · TEN 60% → 81% +21TEN 60% → 81%+21 pts
- Q310:34Chris Olave 19 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)NO 17 – 20 TEN · NO 17% → 39% +22NO 17% → 39%+22 pts
- Q46:22Kevin Austin Jr. 10 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Charlie Smyth Kick)NO 27 – 26 TEN · NO 12% → 58% +45NO 12% → 58%+45 pts
- Q43:44Audric Estime 32 Yd Rush (Charlie Smyth Kick)NO 34 – 26 TEN · NO 60% → 98% +38NO 60% → 98%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Saints 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NO -1.5
- ML NO -110 / TEN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2.5
- NO 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- NO: Elo 58.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NO -103
- TEN +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 20.0 – 18.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1306 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −34 | −5 | NO: Tyler Shough, usually Spencer Rattler · TEN: Cam Ward (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +63 Elo | NO 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 56.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 50.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3217.0 | Points scored | 16.730th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.5 | Points allowed | 26.926th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−5.5 | Margin | −10.131st of 32 |
| 28th of 324.77 | Yards per play | 4.4231st of 32 |
| 6th of 324.95 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7026th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 1–731st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 15383rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321433 | Elo rating | 130630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 4–11 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–0 TEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.