Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing22/38, 269 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Kyren WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 92 YDS
- Xavier SmithReceiving4 REC, 67 YDS
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing13/20, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing22 CAR, 195 YDS, 1 TD
- David Sills VReceiving3 REC, 37 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:21Zane Gonzalez 51 Yd Field Goal24–27
- Q42:46Puka Nacua 11 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)24–24
- Q30:31Jared Verse 76 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Harrison Mevis Kick)17–24
- Q34:59Terrance Ferguson 27 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)10–24
- Q37:46Zane Gonzalez 56 Yd Field Goal3–24
- Q311:08Harrison Mevis 35 Yd Field Goal3–21
- Q21:28Bijan Robinson 93 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)0–21
- Q28:30Jessie Bates III 34 Yd Interception Return (Zane Gonzalez Kick)0–14
- Q16:11Bijan Robinson 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:11Bijan Robinson 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)LAR 0 – 7 ATL · ATL 26% → 43% +17ATL 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q28:30Jessie Bates III 34 Yd Interception Return (Zane Gonzalez Kick)LAR 0 – 14 ATL · ATL 50% → 70% +21ATL 50% → 70%+21 pts
- Q30:31Jared Verse 76 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 17 – 24 ATL · LAR 8% → 31% +22LAR 8% → 31%+22 pts
- Q42:46Puka Nacua 11 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 24 – 24 ATL · LAR 3% → 56% +53LAR 3% → 56%+53 pts
- Q40:21Zane Gonzalez 51 Yd Field GoalLAR 24 – 27 ATL · ATL 48% → >99% +51ATL 48% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -7.5
- ML LAR -375 / ATL +295
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -8.5
- LAR 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- LAR: Elo 77.5%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- LAR -314
- ATL +314 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 28.0 – 20.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1672 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +26 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · ATL: Kirk Cousins (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +215 Elo | LAR 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 76.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 77.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 75.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3230.5 | Points scored | 20.526th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.9 | Points allowed | 24.020th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.5 | Margin | −3.522nd of 32 |
| 1st of 326.24 | Yards per play | 5.4714th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.08 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2413th of 32 |
| 5th of 328–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 11th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 32 |
| 1st of 321537 | Opponent Elo | 148226th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321672 | Elo rating | 140225th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–4 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–3 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.