Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ARI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing21/35, 197 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Tyler AllgeierRushing16 CAR, 79 YDS
- Bijan RobinsonReceiving7 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing16/31, 203 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Michael CarterRushing11 CAR, 65 YDS
- Elijah HigginsReceiving7 REC, 91 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:37Chad Ryland 34 Yd Field Goal26–19
- Q412:28Kirk Cousins 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)26–16
- Q37:25Zane Gonzalez 40 Yd Field Goal19–16
- Q20:25Kyle Pitts Sr. 5 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez PAT blocked)16–16
- Q25:02Chad Ryland 25 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q211:56Bijan Robinson 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)10–13
- Q213:27Chad Ryland 51 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q12:17Zane Gonzalez 49 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q17:43Michael Wilson 32 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)0–10
- Q112:46Chad Ryland 50 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:43Michael Wilson 32 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ATL 0 – 10 ARI · ARI 53% → 70% +18ARI 53% → 70%+18 pts
- Q211:56Bijan Robinson 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)ATL 10 – 13 ARI · ATL 26% → 46% +19ATL 26% → 46%+19 pts
- Q20:25Kyle Pitts Sr. 5 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Zane Gonzalez PAT blocked)ATL 16 – 16 ARI · ATL 34% → 54% +21ATL 34% → 54%+21 pts
- Q37:25Zane Gonzalez 40 Yd Field GoalATL 19 – 16 ARI · ATL 54% → 65% +12ATL 54% → 65%+12 pts
- Q412:28Kirk Cousins 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)ATL 26 – 16 ARI · ATL 68% → 93% +24ATL 68% → 93%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML ATL -142 / ARI +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ATL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -126
- ARI +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 25.5 – 23.0 ARI
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +28 | −15 | ATL: Kirk Cousins · ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +3 Elo | ARI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3220.1 | Points scored | 21.621st of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.4 | Points allowed | 27.729th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.3 | Margin | −6.125th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.54 | Yards per play | 5.1223rd of 32 |
| 12th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6425th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 32 |
| 17th of 323–4 | Road vs home | 1–630th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 15383rd of 32 |
| 27th of 321376 | Elo rating | 138526th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.