Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing20/29, 334 YDS, 2 TD
- James Cook IIIRushing13 CAR, 57 YDS
- Dalton KincaidReceiving5 REC, 130 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing26/38, 274 YDS, 2 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing20 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
- Nico CollinsReceiving7 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:36Joshua Palmer 34 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)36–31
- Q46:44Ka'imi Fairbairn 58 Yd Field Goal30–31
- Q410:31Tyler Bass 33 Yd Field Goal30–28
- Q413:34David Montgomery 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)27–28
- Q34:24Tyler Bass 34 Yd Field Goal27–21
- Q20:26Nico Collins 12 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)24–21
- Q21:29DJ Moore 43 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)24–14
- Q23:59Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)17–14
- Q24:48David Montgomery 18 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–14
- Q212:46Josh Allen 21 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)10–7
- Q10:32David Montgomery 1 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)3–7
- Q17:28Tyler Bass 46 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:48David Montgomery 18 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)BUF 10 – 14 HOU · HOU 41% → 63% +23HOU 41% → 63%+23 pts
- Q23:59Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)BUF 17 – 14 HOU · BUF 36% → 59% +23BUF 36% → 59%+23 pts
- Q413:34David Montgomery 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)BUF 27 – 28 HOU · HOU 22% → 56% +34HOU 22% → 56%+34 pts
- Q46:44Ka'imi Fairbairn 58 Yd Field GoalBUF 30 – 31 HOU · HOU 36% → 58% +22HOU 36% → 58%+22 pts
- Q41:36Joshua Palmer 34 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)BUF 36 – 31 HOU · BUF 35% → 97% +62BUF 35% → 97%+62 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -1.5
- ML BUF -110 / HOU -110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -102
- BUF +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 23.0 – 21.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1609 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +12 | BUF: Josh Allen · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +54 Elo | HOU 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3228.3 | Points scored | 23.813th of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 17.42nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.8 | Margin | +6.46th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.91 | Yards per play | 5.1124th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 4.785th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 7th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 7–24th of 32 |
| 28th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 150514th of 32 |
| 4th of 321602 | Elo rating | 16093rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  BUF |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–10 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 0–2 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.