Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing23/39, 187 YDS, 1 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing11 CAR, 43 YDS
- Germie BernardReceiving4 REC, 35 YDS
Patriots- Drake MayePassing14/22, 208 YDS, 1 INT
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing16 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- Romeo DoubsReceiving3 REC, 96 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q413:37Elijah Ponder 19 Yd Fumble Return (Andy Borregales Kick)3–20
- Q30:43Andy Borregales 45 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 56 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q214:14Andy Borregales 30 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q18:22TreVeyon Henderson 39 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:22TreVeyon Henderson 39 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)PIT 0 – 7 NE · NE 65% → 80% +15NE 65% → 80%+15 pts
- Q214:14Andy Borregales 30 Yd Field GoalPIT 0 – 10 NE · NE 81% → 86% +5NE 81% → 86%+5 pts
- Q20:00Chris Boswell 56 Yd Field GoalPIT 3 – 10 NE · PIT 12% → 18% +6PIT 12% → 18%+6 pts
- Q30:43Andy Borregales 45 Yd Field GoalPIT 3 – 13 NE · NE 86% → 92% +7NE 86% → 92%+7 pts
- Q413:37Elijah Ponder 19 Yd Fumble Return (Andy Borregales Kick)PIT 3 – 20 NE · NE 93% → >99% +6NE 93% → >99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- NE -4.5
- ML PIT +180 / NE -218
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -4.5
- NE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- NE: Elo 65.2%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- NE -192
- PIT +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 18.5 – 23.0 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | +14 | PIT: Aaron Rodgers · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +109 Elo | NE 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 69.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 66.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 65.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 28.82nd of 32 |
| 17th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 18.84th of 32 |
| 18th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +10.03rd of 32 |
| 17th of 325.26 | Yards per play | 6.182nd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1612th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 6–38th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321521 | Opponent Elo | 145932nd of 32 |
| 15th of 321514 | Elo rating | 15877th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  PIT |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–9 | 14–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 10–4 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 NE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.