Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Cooper RushPassing12/22, 143 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Bijan RobinsonRushing21 CAR, 83 YDS
- Bijan RobinsonReceiving8 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing24/40, 221 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WarrenRushing10 CAR, 46 YDS
- Michael Pittman Jr.Receiving3 REC, 58 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:35Nick Folk 43 Yd Field Goal13–20
- Q414:05T.J. Watt 35 Yd Interception Return (Chris Boswell Kick)10–20
- Q31:50Nick Folk 51 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q210:39Pat Freiermuth 6 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)7–13
- Q212:28Chris Boswell 28 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q11:13Bijan Robinson 23 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Nick Folk Kick)7–3
- Q18:30Chris Boswell 43 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:13Bijan Robinson 23 Yd pass from Cooper Rush (Nick Folk Kick)ATL 7 – 3 PIT · ATL 24% → 41% +18ATL 24% → 41%+18 pts
- Q212:28Chris Boswell 28 Yd Field GoalATL 7 – 6 PIT · PIT 57% → 66% +9PIT 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q210:39Pat Freiermuth 6 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)ATL 7 – 13 PIT · PIT 65% → 82% +17PIT 65% → 82%+17 pts
- Q31:50Nick Folk 51 Yd Field GoalATL 10 – 13 PIT · ATL 15% → 25% +10ATL 15% → 25%+10 pts
- Q414:05T.J. Watt 35 Yd Interception Return (Chris Boswell Kick)ATL 10 – 20 PIT · PIT 75% → 94% +19PIT 75% → 94%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Steelers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- PIT -6.5
- ML ATL +240 / PIT -298
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT -6
- PIT 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 71.0%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- PIT -254
- ATL +254 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 17.0 – 23.5 PIT
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −67 | +15 | ATL: Cooper Rush, usually Kirk Cousins · PIT: Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +156 Elo | PIT 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 71.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 71.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3220.8 | Points scored | 23.415th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.6 | Points allowed | 22.817th of 32 |
| 21st of 32−2.8 | Margin | +0.618th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.40 | Yards per play | 5.2617th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.28 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4619th of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 21st of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 15194th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321462 | Elo rating | 150016th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  ATL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.