New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing23/33, 178 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing18 CAR, 51 YDS
- Mack HollinsReceiving4 REC, 51 YDS
Seahawks- Drew LockPassing16/22, 187 YDS, 1 TD
- Jadarian PriceRushing10 CAR, 52 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving8 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q45:50Jason Myers 26 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q411:28Jaxon Smith-Njigba 45 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)10–10
- Q33:13Jason Myers 30 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q311:49Andy Borregales 50 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q29:11Eli Raridon 2 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:11Eli Raridon 2 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 7 – 0 SEA · NE 41% → 63% +21NE 41% → 63%+21 pts
- Q311:49Andy Borregales 50 Yd Field GoalNE 10 – 0 SEA · NE 68% → 77% +9NE 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q33:13Jason Myers 30 Yd Field GoalNE 10 – 3 SEA · SEA 16% → 26% +10SEA 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q411:28Jaxon Smith-Njigba 45 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Jason Myers Kick)NE 10 – 10 SEA · SEA 19% → 55% +36SEA 19% → 55%+36 pts
- Q45:50Jason Myers 26 Yd Field GoalNE 10 – 13 SEA · SEA 53% → 76% +22SEA 53% → 76%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -3
- ML NE +142 / SEA -170
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -5.5
- SEA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 68.1%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -156
- NE +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 20.8 – 23.8 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1687 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | +23 | NE: Drake Maye · SEA: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +132 Elo | SEA 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3228.8 | Points scored | 28.43rd of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.8 | Points allowed | 17.21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+10.0 | Margin | +11.21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.18 | Yards per play | 5.886th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 4.562nd of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–0 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321430 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 32 |
| 6th of 321646 | Elo rating | 17801st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NE |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–7 | 15–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–4 | 13–4 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 0–2 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.