Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing20/26, 198 YDS
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing16 CAR, 97 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving6 REC, 84 YDS
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing19/27, 127 YDS, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing8 CAR, 23 YDS
- Jauan JenningsReceiving4 REC, 35 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q414:15Jason Myers 31 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q21:06Eddy Pineiro 48 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q25:19Jason Myers 45 Yd Field Goal10–0
- Q14:29Zach Charbonnet 27 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:29Zach Charbonnet 27 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 0 SF · SEA 57% → 75% +18SEA 57% → 75%+18 pts
- Q25:19Jason Myers 45 Yd Field GoalSEA 10 – 0 SF · SEA 77% → 83% +7SEA 77% → 83%+7 pts
- Q21:06Eddy Pineiro 48 Yd Field GoalSEA 10 – 3 SF · SF 15% → 23% +7SF 15% → 23%+7 pts
- Q414:15Jason Myers 31 Yd Field GoalSEA 13 – 3 SF · SEA 84% → 92% +8SEA 84% → 92%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -2.5
- ML SEA -155 / SF +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -0.5
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -137
- SF +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 25.5 – 23.0 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1687 | 1619 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +25 | +40 | SEA: Sam Darnold · SF: Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +16 Elo | SEA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.4 | Points scored | 27.18th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3218.1 | Points allowed | 22.414th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.3 | Margin | +4.87th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.92 | Yards per play | 5.5811th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.58 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6424th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 8–25th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–1 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 25th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 148026th of 32 |
| 1st of 321687 | Elo rating | 16199th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–5 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–4 | 8–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–4 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.