Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing18/27, 147 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Zach CharbonnetRushing18 CAR, 110 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving9 REC, 72 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing14/24, 54 YDS, 1 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing12 CAR, 59 YDS
- Jalen CokerReceiving2 REC, 16 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:31Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)27–10
- Q45:33Jason Myers 30 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q413:41Bryce Young 10 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)17–10
- Q35:32AJ Barner 17 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)17–3
- Q38:45Zach Charbonnet 2 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)10–3
- Q23:46Ryan Fitzgerald 35 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q13:23Jason Myers 48 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:23Jason Myers 48 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 0 CAR · SEA 71% → 78% +7SEA 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q23:46Ryan Fitzgerald 35 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 3 CAR · CAR 24% → 32% +8CAR 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q38:45Zach Charbonnet 2 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 10 – 3 CAR · SEA 65% → 86% +21SEA 65% → 86%+21 pts
- Q35:32AJ Barner 17 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 17 – 3 CAR · SEA 87% → 97% +10SEA 87% → 97%+10 pts
- Q413:41Bryce Young 10 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)SEA 17 – 10 CAR · CAR 2% → 11% +10CAR 2% → 11%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -6.5
- ML SEA -305 / CAR +245
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -9.5
- SEA 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.5 pts
- SEA: Elo 79.7%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -268
- CAR +268 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 24.5 – 18.0 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1673 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +27 | +6 | SEA: Sam Darnold · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +238 Elo | SEA 79.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 79.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 79.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 72.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3229.5 | Points scored | 19.127th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3218.6 | Points allowed | 22.513th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+10.9 | Margin | −3.321st of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.04 | Yards per play | 5.0625th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.68 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5824th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326–1 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 15th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 149021st of 32 |
| 1st of 321673 | Elo rating | 142024th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–5 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.