San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing15/27, 140 YDS, 1 INT
- Brock PurdyRushing5 CAR, 37 YDS
- Jake TongesReceiving5 REC, 59 YDS
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing12/17, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing19 CAR, 116 YDS, 3 TD
- Cooper KuppReceiving5 REC, 60 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q412:43Kenneth Walker III 6 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)6–41
- Q32:23Kenneth Walker III 15 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)6–34
- Q37:07Jason Myers 24 Yd Field Goal6–27
- Q20:31Kenneth Walker III 7 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)6–24
- Q24:32Eddy Pineiro 56 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q211:58Eddy Pineiro 40 Yd Field Goal3–17
- Q11:50Jaxon Smith-Njigba 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)0–17
- Q15:06Jason Myers 31 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q114:47Rashid Shaheed 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Jason Myers Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q114:47Rashid Shaheed 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Jason Myers Kick)SF 0 – 7 SEA · SEA 74% → 86% +12SEA 74% → 86%+12 pts
- Q15:06Jason Myers 31 Yd Field GoalSF 0 – 10 SEA · SEA 86% → 90% +4SEA 86% → 90%+4 pts
- Q11:50Jaxon Smith-Njigba 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SF 0 – 17 SEA · SEA 90% → 96% +6SEA 90% → 96%+6 pts
- Q24:32Eddy Pineiro 56 Yd Field GoalSF 6 – 17 SEA · SF 5% → 8% +3SF 5% → 8%+3 pts
- Q20:31Kenneth Walker III 7 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)SF 6 – 24 SEA · SEA 92% → 98% +6SEA 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -7
- ML SF +270 / SEA -340
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -5
- SEA 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 67.7%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -279
- SF +279 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 18.8 – 25.8 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1715 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +34 | +24 | SF: Brock Purdy · SEA: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +129 Elo | SEA 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 68.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 73.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.7 | Points scored | 28.43rd of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 17.21st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+3.9 | Margin | +11.21st of 32 |
| 11th of 325.52 | Yards per play | 5.886th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.63 | Yards allowed per play | 4.562nd of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–2 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 32 |
| 9th of 321612 | Elo rating | 17151st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–7 | 12–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 10–4 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–2 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.