San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Brock PurdyPassing18/31, 262 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing15 CAR, 48 YDS
- Demarcus RobinsonReceiving6 REC, 111 YDS, 1 TD
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing20/35, 168 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing26 CAR, 106 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving8 REC, 70 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:54Christian McCaffrey 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro PAT Failed)23–19
- Q48:00Jake Elliott 33 Yd Field Goal17–19
- Q414:52Christian McCaffrey 29 Yd pass from Jauan Jennings (Eddy Pineiro Kick)17–16
- Q32:11Jake Elliott 41 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q22:50Eddy Pineiro 36 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q26:08Dallas Goedert 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)7–13
- Q16:16Dallas Goedert 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott PAT Failed)7–6
- Q111:51Demarcus Robinson 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:51Demarcus Robinson 2 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 7 – 0 PHI · SF 33% → 51% +18SF 33% → 51%+18 pts
- Q26:08Dallas Goedert 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)SF 7 – 13 PHI · PHI 61% → 80% +19PHI 61% → 80%+19 pts
- Q414:52Christian McCaffrey 29 Yd pass from Jauan Jennings (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 17 – 16 PHI · SF 16% → 46% +30SF 16% → 46%+30 pts
- Q48:00Jake Elliott 33 Yd Field GoalSF 17 – 19 PHI · PHI 50% → 69% +20PHI 50% → 69%+20 pts
- Q42:54Christian McCaffrey 4 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro PAT Failed)SF 23 – 19 PHI · SF 25% → 85% +60SF 25% → 85%+60 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -5.5
- ML SF +205 / PHI -250
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -206
- SF +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 19.5 – 25.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1585 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +36 | +12 | SF: Brock Purdy · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +6 Elo | PHI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.7 | Points scored | 22.319th of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 19.15th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+3.9 | Margin | +3.210th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.52 | Yards per play | 5.2419th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.63 | Yards allowed per play | 4.957th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–2 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 32 |
| 9th of 321591 | Elo rating | 158510th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.