Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Josh JohnsonPassing14/22, 131 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing16 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Terry McLaurinReceiving4 REC, 57 YDS
Eagles- Tanner McKeePassing21/40, 241 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Tank BigsbyRushing16 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- DeVonta SmithReceiving3 REC, 52 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:32Josh Johnson 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)24–17
- Q49:35John Bates 2 Yd pass from Josh Johnson (Jake Moody Kick)17–17
- Q30:30Jake Elliott 39 Yd Field Goal10–17
- Q36:27Tank Bigsby 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)10–14
- Q20:00Jake Moody 56 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q29:03Chris Rodriguez Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)7–7
- Q213:37Grant Calcaterra 15 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:37Grant Calcaterra 15 Yd pass from Tanner McKee (Jake Elliott Kick)WSH 0 – 7 PHI · PHI 61% → 79% +18PHI 61% → 79%+18 pts
- Q29:03Chris Rodriguez Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)WSH 7 – 7 PHI · WSH 21% → 39% +19WSH 21% → 39%+19 pts
- Q36:27Tank Bigsby 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)WSH 10 – 14 PHI · PHI 45% → 73% +28PHI 45% → 73%+28 pts
- Q49:35John Bates 2 Yd pass from Josh Johnson (Jake Moody Kick)WSH 17 – 17 PHI · WSH 11% → 45% +34WSH 11% → 45%+34 pts
- Q42:32Josh Johnson 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)WSH 24 – 17 PHI · WSH 47% → 98% +51WSH 47% → 98%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3
- ML WSH +150 / PHI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -9
- PHI 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +16.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 78.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -171
- WSH +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 17.8 – 20.8 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −88 | −146 | WSH: Josh Johnson, usually Jayden Daniels · PHI: Tanner McKee, usually Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +225 Elo | PHI 78.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 77.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 78.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3220.8 | Points scored | 22.618th of 32 |
| 27th of 3227.1 | Points allowed | 18.83rd of 32 |
| 28th of 32−6.4 | Margin | +3.810th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.55 | Yards per play | 5.2619th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.08 | Yards allowed per play | 4.987th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 23rd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 32 |
| 17th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149124th of 32 |
| 27th of 321383 | Elo rating | 16318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 4–9 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–5 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.