Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing19/37, 307 YDS, 2 TD
- Malik DavisRushing20 CAR, 103 YDS
- KaVontae TurpinReceiving1 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Commanders- Josh JohnsonPassing15/23, 198 YDS
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRushing11 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- Deebo Samuel Sr.Receiving2 REC, 68 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:09Jake Moody 51 Yd Field Goal30–23
- Q43:59Brandon Aubrey 51 Yd Field Goal30–20
- Q30:16Jake Moody 23 Yd Field Goal27–20
- Q34:42Brandon Aubrey 52 Yd Field Goal27–17
- Q39:34Jacory Croskey-Merritt 72 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)24–17
- Q20:19Brandon Aubrey 42 Yd Field Goal24–10
- Q24:35Jacory Croskey-Merritt 10 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)21–10
- Q27:00KaVontae Turpin 86 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)21–3
- Q212:06Javonte Williams 4 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)14–3
- Q14:44Jake Moody 29 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q19:42Jake Ferguson 6 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:42Jake Ferguson 6 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 7 – 0 WSH · DAL 79% → 90% +11DAL 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q212:06Javonte Williams 4 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 14 – 3 WSH · DAL 84% → 94% +9DAL 84% → 94%+9 pts
- Q39:34Jacory Croskey-Merritt 72 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)DAL 24 – 17 WSH · WSH 3% → 11% +8WSH 3% → 11%+8 pts
- Q34:42Brandon Aubrey 52 Yd Field GoalDAL 27 – 17 WSH · DAL 89% → 94% +5DAL 89% → 94%+5 pts
- Q30:16Jake Moody 23 Yd Field GoalDAL 27 – 20 WSH · WSH 5% → 10% +5WSH 5% → 10%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -8.5
- ML DAL -535 / WSH +400
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 65.9%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -397
- WSH +397 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 29.5 – 21.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1400 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +26 | −102 | DAL: Dak Prescott · WSH: Josh Johnson, usually Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +114 Elo | DAL 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 79.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3228.3 | Points scored | 20.624th of 32 |
| 31st of 3230.3 | Points allowed | 26.927th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−2.0 | Margin | −6.326th of 32 |
| 4th of 326.02 | Yards per play | 5.4415th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.11 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1331st of 32 |
| 17th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 32 |
| 21st of 322–5 | Road vs home | 2–525th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321423 | Elo rating | 140026th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 5–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 3–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–4 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–1 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.