Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing22/35, 374 YDS, 3 TD
- Blake CorumRushing9 CAR, 55 YDS
- Puka NacuaReceiving9 REC, 165 YDS, 1 TD
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing25/36, 346 YDS, 3 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing19 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving10 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q32:06Puka Nacua 34 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)27–31
- Q34:52Cooper Kupp 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)20–31
- Q39:41Davante Adams 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)20–24
- Q312:02Jake Bobo 17 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)13–24
- Q20:20Jaxon Smith-Njigba 14 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)13–17
- Q21:55Kyren Williams 9 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)13–10
- Q212:11Harrison Mevis 50 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q10:54Jason Myers 27 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q18:15Harrison Mevis 44 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q19:57Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:55Kyren Williams 9 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 13 – 10 SEA · LAR 32% → 55% +23LAR 32% → 55%+23 pts
- Q20:20Jaxon Smith-Njigba 14 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)LAR 13 – 17 SEA · SEA 45% → 69% +24SEA 45% → 69%+24 pts
- Q39:41Davante Adams 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 20 – 24 SEA · LAR 12% → 31% +19LAR 12% → 31%+19 pts
- Q34:52Cooper Kupp 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)LAR 20 – 31 SEA · SEA 71% → 90% +20SEA 71% → 90%+20 pts
- Q32:06Puka Nacua 34 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 27 – 31 SEA · LAR 8% → 28% +20LAR 8% → 28%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -2.5
- ML LAR +120 / SEA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -5
- SEA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 67.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -134
- LAR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 21.5 – 24.0 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1671 | 1742 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +23 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · SEA: Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +124 Elo | SEA 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 64.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3230.5 | Points scored | 28.43rd of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 17.21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.1 | Margin | +11.21st of 32 |
| 1st of 326.18 | Yards per play | 5.886th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.19 | Yards allowed per play | 4.562nd of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
| 8th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321671 | Elo rating | 17421st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–7 | 13–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–6 | 11–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 4–2 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.