Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing20/42, 258 YDS
- Kyren WilliamsRushing21 CAR, 87 YDS, 2 TD
- Colby ParkinsonReceiving3 REC, 56 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing23/42, 257 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing19 CAR, 76 YDS
- Colston LovelandReceiving4 REC, 56 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT3:19Harrison Mevis 42 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q40:18Cole Kmet 14 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)17–17
- Q48:50Kyren Williams 5 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)17–10
- Q20:00Harrison Mevis 32 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q21:10Cairo Santos 48 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q214:55DJ Moore 3 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)7–7
- Q16:20Kyren Williams 4 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:20Kyren Williams 4 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 7 – 0 CHI · LAR 62% → 78% +16LAR 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q214:55DJ Moore 3 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)LAR 7 – 7 CHI · CHI 22% → 39% +17CHI 22% → 39%+17 pts
- Q48:50Kyren Williams 5 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick)LAR 17 – 10 CHI · LAR 55% → 90% +35LAR 55% → 90%+35 pts
- Q40:18Cole Kmet 14 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)LAR 17 – 17 CHI · CHI <1% → 49% +49CHI <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT3:19Harrison Mevis 42 Yd Field GoalLAR 20 – 17 CHI · LAR 53% → 81% +28LAR 53% → 81%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -3.5
- ML LAR -192 / CHI +160
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -2
- LAR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- LAR: Elo 57.5%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- LAR -168
- CHI +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 26.5 – 23.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1657 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | +8 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +53 Elo | LAR 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 59.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 62.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 3230.5 | Points scored | 25.99th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.4 | Points allowed | 24.423rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+10.1 | Margin | +1.515th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.18 | Yards per play | 5.709th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.19 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0029th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
| 9th of 321515 | Opponent Elo | 149423rd of 32 |
| 5th of 321657 | Elo rating | 156512th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–6 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–5 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.