Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing24/46, 323 YDS, 4 TD
- Josh JacobsRushing19 CAR, 55 YDS
- Romeo DoubsReceiving8 REC, 124 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing24/48, 361 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing13 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- Colston LovelandReceiving8 REC, 137 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:43DJ Moore 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)27–31
- Q44:18Olamide Zaccheaus 8 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Caleb Williams Pass to Colston Loveland for Two-Point Conversion)27–24
- Q46:36Matthew Golden 23 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus PAT Failed)27–16
- Q410:08D'Andre Swift 6 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)21–16
- Q413:29Cairo Santos 51 Yd Field Goal21–9
- Q310:07Cairo Santos 34 Yd Field Goal21–6
- Q21:56Romeo Doubs 1 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)21–3
- Q26:46Jayden Reed 18 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)14–3
- Q12:06Christian Watson 7 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)7–3
- Q17:02Cairo Santos 27 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:06Christian Watson 7 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 7 – 3 CHI · GB 45% → 64% +19GB 45% → 64%+19 pts
- Q26:46Jayden Reed 18 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Brandon McManus Kick)GB 14 – 3 CHI · GB 65% → 83% +18GB 65% → 83%+18 pts
- Q410:08D'Andre Swift 6 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)GB 21 – 16 CHI · CHI 3% → 21% +18CHI 3% → 21%+18 pts
- Q44:18Olamide Zaccheaus 8 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Caleb Williams Pass to Colston Loveland for Two-Point Conversion)GB 27 – 24 CHI · CHI <1% → 23% +23CHI <1% → 23%+23 pts
- Q41:43DJ Moore 25 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)GB 27 – 31 CHI · CHI 13% → 93% +80CHI 13% → 93%+80 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- GB -1.5
- ML GB -130 / CHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1
- GB 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- GB: Elo 46.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- GB -116
- CHI +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 24.0 – 22.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +19 | +9 | GB: Jordan Love · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +23 Elo | CHI 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 53.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 25.99th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.2 | Points allowed | 24.423rd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.8 | Margin | +1.515th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.60 | Yards per play | 5.709th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.00 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0029th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4–1 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
| 14th of 321508 | Opponent Elo | 150021st of 32 |
| 14th of 321550 | Elo rating | 154715th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 4–2 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.