Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Clayton TunePassing6/11, 34 YDS
- Chris BrooksRushing13 CAR, 61 YDS
- Jakobie Keeney-JamesReceiving2 REC, 15 YDS
Vikings- J.J. McCarthyPassing14/23, 182 YDS
- Jordan MasonRushing14 CAR, 94 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving8 REC, 101 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Brandon McManus 24 Yd Field Goal3–16
- Q44:09Will Reichard 37 Yd Field Goal0–16
- Q20:23C.J. Ham 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)0–13
- Q23:02Will Reichard 25 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q110:27Will Reichard 43 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:27Will Reichard 43 Yd Field GoalGB 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 83% → 88% +4MIN 83% → 88%+4 pts
- Q23:02Will Reichard 25 Yd Field GoalGB 0 – 6 MIN · MIN 84% → 90% +5MIN 84% → 90%+5 pts
- Q20:23C.J. Ham 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)GB 0 – 13 MIN · MIN 89% → 97% +7MIN 89% → 97%+7 pts
- Q44:09Will Reichard 37 Yd Field GoalGB 0 – 16 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
- Q40:00Brandon McManus 24 Yd Field GoalGB 3 – 16 MIN · GB 0% → 0% +0GB 0% → 0%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -13.5
- ML GB +525 / MIN -750
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -10.5
- MIN 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 81.5%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -542
- GB +542 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 12.0 – 25.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1624 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −205 | −46 | GB: Clayton Tune, usually Jordan Love · MIN: J.J. McCarthy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +258 Elo | MIN 81.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 79.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 84.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 20.526th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.5 | Points allowed | 20.610th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.8 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.76 | Yards per play | 4.8428th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.95 | Yards allowed per play | 4.805th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 12th of 324–3–1 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 151611th of 32 |
| 14th of 321561 | Elo rating | 16248th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.