Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing22/31, 243 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Emari DemercadoRushing2 CAR, 29 YDS
- Michael WilsonReceiving5 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing25/40, 259 YDS, 4 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing12 CAR, 60 YDS
- Tyler HigbeeReceiving5 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:15Colby Parkinson 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)20–37
- Q410:39Tyler Higbee 22 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)20–30
- Q30:42Colby Parkinson 21 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)20–23
- Q33:51Josiah Deguara 7 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)20–16
- Q310:38Michael Wilson 43 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)13–16
- Q20:00Harrison Mevis 40 Yd Field Goal6–16
- Q21:22Puka Nacua 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)6–13
- Q29:35Chad Ryland 56 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q211:45Harrison Mevis 42 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q13:26Chad Ryland 45 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q111:07Harrison Mevis 34 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:22Puka Nacua 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)ARI 6 – 13 LAR · LAR 82% → 93% +12LAR 82% → 93%+12 pts
- Q310:38Michael Wilson 43 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 13 – 16 LAR · ARI 4% → 14% +10ARI 4% → 14%+10 pts
- Q33:51Josiah Deguara 7 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 20 – 16 LAR · ARI 15% → 40% +25ARI 15% → 40%+25 pts
- Q30:42Colby Parkinson 21 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)ARI 20 – 23 LAR · LAR 56% → 84% +29LAR 56% → 84%+29 pts
- Q410:39Tyler Higbee 22 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick)ARI 20 – 30 LAR · LAR 83% → 98% +14LAR 83% → 98%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -14.5
- ML ARI +800 / LAR -1350
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -14.5
- LAR 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- LAR: Elo 88.7%, market 89.3%
- Fair odds
- LAR -834
- ARI +834 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 17.5 – 32.0 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 49.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1339 | 1643 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −12 | +6 | ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +357 Elo | LAR 88.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 89.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 88.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 89.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.9 | Points scored | 30.11st of 32 |
| 29th of 3228.2 | Points allowed | 20.410th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−7.3 | Margin | +9.72nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.11 | Yards per play | 6.231st of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.58 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1511th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 25th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 6–13rd of 32 |
| 4th of 321525 | Opponent Elo | 15302nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321339 | Elo rating | 16435th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 10–4 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–4 LAR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.