Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing21/37, 212 YDS, 2 TD
- Michael CarterRushing7 CAR, 29 YDS
- Michael WilsonReceiving5 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing24/31, 305 YDS, 2 TD
- Chase BrownRushing22 CAR, 101 YDS, 2 TD
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving7 REC, 60 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:50Trey McBride 18 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)14–37
- Q31:38Chase Brown 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)7–37
- Q37:33Chase Brown 6 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)7–30
- Q21:15Ja'Marr Chase 8 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)7–23
- Q23:21Evan McPherson 57 Yd Field Goal7–16
- Q211:44Michael Wilson 38 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)7–13
- Q214:58Samaje Perine 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson PAT Failed)0–13
- Q19:17Ja'Marr Chase 13 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:17Ja'Marr Chase 13 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)ARI 0 – 7 CIN · CIN 73% → 86% +13CIN 73% → 86%+13 pts
- Q214:58Samaje Perine 1 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson PAT Failed)ARI 0 – 13 CIN · CIN 86% → 93% +8CIN 86% → 93%+8 pts
- Q211:44Michael Wilson 38 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 7 – 13 CIN · ARI 6% → 16% +10ARI 6% → 16%+10 pts
- Q23:21Evan McPherson 57 Yd Field GoalARI 7 – 16 CIN · CIN 84% → 89% +5CIN 84% → 89%+5 pts
- Q21:15Ja'Marr Chase 8 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)ARI 7 – 23 CIN · CIN 90% → 97% +7CIN 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -7
- ML ARI +275 / CIN -345
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -7
- CIN 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 73.4%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -290
- ARI +290 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 23.3 – 30.3 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 53.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1359 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −14 | +29 | ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +177 Elo | CIN 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 72.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 74.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3221.4 | Points scored | 23.914th of 32 |
| 29th of 3227.6 | Points allowed | 30.532nd of 32 |
| 25th of 32−6.2 | Margin | −6.628th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.16 | Yards per play | 5.2420th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 6.4132nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 2–525th of 32 |
| 5th of 321533 | Opponent Elo | 15471st of 32 |
| 27th of 321359 | Elo rating | 145619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 0–1 CIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.