Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing19/38, 202 YDS, 1 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing27 CAR, 135 YDS
- Cooper KuppReceiving6 REC, 61 YDS
Patriots- Drake MayePassing27/43, 295 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Drake MayeRushing5 CAR, 37 YDS
- Mack HollinsReceiving4 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:21Rhamondre Stevenson 7 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–13
- Q44:27Uchenna Nwosu 45 Yd Interception Return (Jason Myers Kick)29–7
- Q45:35Jason Myers 26 Yd Field Goal22–7
- Q412:27Mack Hollins 35 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)19–7
- Q413:24AJ Barner 16 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)19–0
- Q39:12Jason Myers 41 Yd Field Goal12–0
- Q20:11Jason Myers 41 Yd Field Goal9–0
- Q211:16Jason Myers 39 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q111:58Jason Myers 33 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:58Jason Myers 33 Yd Field GoalSEA 3 – 0 NE · SEA 66% → 73% +7SEA 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q211:16Jason Myers 39 Yd Field GoalSEA 6 – 0 NE · SEA 72% → 79% +7SEA 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q20:11Jason Myers 41 Yd Field GoalSEA 9 – 0 NE · SEA 80% → 86% +7SEA 80% → 86%+7 pts
- Q39:12Jason Myers 41 Yd Field GoalSEA 12 – 0 NE · SEA 88% → 93% +5SEA 88% → 93%+5 pts
- Q413:24AJ Barner 16 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 19 – 0 NE · SEA 96% → >99% +3SEA 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -4.5
- ML SEA -230 / NE +190
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -3.5
- SEA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.6%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -199
- NE +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 25.0 – 20.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1755 | 1671 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +25 | +19 | SEA: Sam Darnold · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +89 Elo | SEA 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 66.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3228.4 | Points scored | 28.82nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3217.2 | Points allowed | 18.84th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+11.2 | Margin | +10.03rd of 32 |
| 6th of 325.88 | Yards per play | 6.182nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.56 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1612th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 21st of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 143032nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321755 | Elo rating | 16712nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–5 | 14–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–4 | 10–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 NE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.