New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing14/25, 199 YDS, 2 INT
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing8 CAR, 23 YDS
- Mack HollinsReceiving6 REC, 87 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing19/29, 182 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Bhayshul TutenRushing15 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- Jakobi MeyersReceiving7 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q48:02Bhayshul Tuten 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)6–35
- Q413:17Andy Borregales 40 Yd Field Goal6–28
- Q30:50Chris Rodriguez Jr. 5 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)3–28
- Q31:08Parker Washington 17 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)3–21
- Q24:23Jakobi Meyers 10 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)3–14
- Q29:09Andy Borregales 35 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q213:25Josh Cameron 12 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q213:25Josh Cameron 12 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)NE 0 – 7 JAX · JAX 56% → 75% +19JAX 56% → 75%+19 pts
- Q29:09Andy Borregales 35 Yd Field GoalNE 3 – 7 JAX · NE 24% → 32% +8NE 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q24:23Jakobi Meyers 10 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)NE 3 – 14 JAX · JAX 68% → 86% +17JAX 68% → 86%+17 pts
- Q31:08Parker Washington 17 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)NE 3 – 21 JAX · JAX 92% → 99% +6JAX 92% → 99%+6 pts
- Q30:50Chris Rodriguez Jr. 5 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)NE 3 – 28 JAX · JAX 99% → >99% +1JAX 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -3
- ML NE +130 / JAX -155
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -0.5
- JAX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- JAX: Elo 48.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- JAX -136
- NE +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 21.8 – 24.8 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +14 | +9 | NE: Drake Maye · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +10 Elo | NE 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 50.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 57.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3228.8 | Points scored | 27.96th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.8 | Points allowed | 19.88th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+10.0 | Margin | +8.14th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.18 | Yards per play | 5.2518th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.16 | Yards allowed per play | 4.988th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–0 | Road vs home | 7–12nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321461 | Opponent Elo | 148229th of 32 |
| 4th of 321611 | Elo rating | 15698th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NE |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–7 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–4 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 0–1 JAX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.