Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing16/22, 205 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Deshaun WatsonRushing6 CAR, 38 YDS
- Denzel BostonReceiving2 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing18/23, 245 YDS, 4 TD
- Bhayshul TutenRushing15 CAR, 66 YDS
- Parker WashingtonReceiving5 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:52Denzel Boston 46 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick).10–34
- Q31:48Cam Little 40 Yd Field Goal3–34
- Q38:31Andre Szmyt 26 Yd Field Goal3–31
- Q312:08Jakobi Meyers 32 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0–31
- Q26:18Brenton Strange 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0–24
- Q29:09Cam Little 47 Yd Field Goal0–17
- Q11:42Josh Cameron 4 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0–14
- Q18:11Parker Washington 30 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:11Parker Washington 30 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)CLE 0 – 7 JAX · JAX 77% → 89% +11JAX 77% → 89%+11 pts
- Q11:42Josh Cameron 4 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)CLE 0 – 14 JAX · JAX 89% → 96% +7JAX 89% → 96%+7 pts
- Q29:09Cam Little 47 Yd Field GoalCLE 0 – 17 JAX · JAX 96% → 98% +2JAX 96% → 98%+2 pts
- Q26:18Brenton Strange 14 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)CLE 0 – 24 JAX · JAX 98% → >99% +2JAX 98% → >99%+2 pts
- Q312:08Jakobi Meyers 32 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)CLE 0 – 31 JAX · JAX >99% → >99% +0JAX >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -8.5
- ML CLE +360 / JAX -470
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -7.5
- JAX 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- JAX: Elo 74.5%, market 79.1%
- Fair odds
- JAX -372
- CLE +372 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 16.0 – 24.5 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +2 | +9 | CLE: Deshaun Watson, usually Shedeur Sanders · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +186 Elo | JAX 74.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 74.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 78.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3216.4 | Points scored | 27.96th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 19.88th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−5.9 | Margin | +8.14th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.33 | Yards per play | 5.2518th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.75 | Yards allowed per play | 4.988th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 24th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 7–12nd of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 148826th of 32 |
| 25th of 321433 | Elo rating | 15768th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CLE |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–0 JAX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.