Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Titans- Brandon AllenPassing17/30, 72 YDS, 1 INT
- Tony PollardRushing14 CAR, 48 YDS
- Elic AyomanorReceiving3 REC, 50 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing22/30, 255 YDS, 3 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing14 CAR, 32 YDS
- Parker WashingtonReceiving5 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:28Bhayshul Tuten 5 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)7–41
- Q31:03Cam Little 52 Yd Field Goal7–34
- Q20:00Cam Little 67 Yd Field Goal7–31
- Q21:56Quintin Morris 5 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–28
- Q28:07Antonio Johnson 58 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)7–21
- Q211:47Brenton Strange 7 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–14
- Q16:02Parker Washington 23 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)7–7
- Q110:09Cam Ward 7 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:09Cam Ward 7 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)TEN 7 – 0 JAX · TEN 15% → 28% +13TEN 15% → 28%+13 pts
- Q16:02Parker Washington 23 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)TEN 7 – 7 JAX · JAX 70% → 84% +14JAX 70% → 84%+14 pts
- Q211:47Brenton Strange 7 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)TEN 7 – 14 JAX · JAX 82% → 92% +11JAX 82% → 92%+11 pts
- Q28:07Antonio Johnson 58 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)TEN 7 – 21 JAX · JAX 92% → 98% +5JAX 92% → 98%+5 pts
- Q21:56Quintin Morris 5 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)TEN 7 – 28 JAX · JAX 98% → >99% +2JAX 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -13.5
- ML TEN +575 / JAX -850
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -15.5
- JAX 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- JAX: Elo 90.4%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- JAX -624
- TEN +624 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEN 16.5 – 30.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEN | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1284 | 1626 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −2 | +9 | TEN: Cam Ward · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +389 Elo | JAX 90.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 82.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 88.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 86.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TEN | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3217.3 | Points scored | 27.18th of 32 |
| 28th of 3227.3 | Points allowed | 20.69th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−10.0 | Margin | +6.54th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.44 | Yards per play | 5.2321st of 32 |
| 28th of 325.83 | Yards allowed per play | 5.059th of 32 |
| 28th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 8–25th of 32 |
| 23rd of 322–5 | Road vs home | 6–12nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 321531 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 32 |
| 31st of 321284 | Elo rating | 16267th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEN |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–9 | 11–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–6 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEN 1–4 JAX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.