Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Shedeur SandersPassing11/22, 111 YDS
- Dylan SampsonRushing10 CAR, 32 YDS
- Cedric TillmanReceiving1 REC, 23 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing29/39, 236 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Chase BrownRushing13 CAR, 72 YDS
- Ja'Marr ChaseReceiving8 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Andre Szmyt 49 Yd Field Goal20–18
- Q41:29Ja'Marr Chase 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–18
- Q38:00Andre Szmyt 27 Yd Field Goal17–12
- Q20:29Tee Higgins 13 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson PAT Failed)14–12
- Q214:06Sam Webb 47 Yd Fumble Recovery (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–6
- Q10:56Devin Bush 97 Yd Interception Return (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–6
- Q17:59Chase Brown 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson PAT blocked)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:56Devin Bush 97 Yd Interception Return (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 7 – 6 CIN · CLE 14% → 27% +14CLE 14% → 27%+14 pts
- Q214:06Sam Webb 47 Yd Fumble Recovery (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 14 – 6 CIN · CLE 28% → 47% +19CLE 28% → 47%+19 pts
- Q20:29Tee Higgins 13 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson PAT Failed)CLE 14 – 12 CIN · CIN 44% → 64% +21CIN 44% → 64%+21 pts
- Q41:29Ja'Marr Chase 4 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)CLE 17 – 18 CIN · CIN 3% → 70% +67CIN 3% → 70%+67 pts
- Q40:00Andre Szmyt 49 Yd Field GoalCLE 20 – 18 CIN · CLE 0% → 100% +100CLE 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -8.5
- ML CLE +340 / CIN -440
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -7
- CIN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 73.6%, market 78.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -352
- CLE +352 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 19.5 – 28.0 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −13 | +30 | CLE: Shedeur Sanders · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +178 Elo | CIN 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 73.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 77.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3216.2 | Points scored | 24.812th of 32 |
| 15th of 3222.6 | Points allowed | 29.531st of 32 |
| 27th of 32−6.4 | Margin | −4.826th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.35 | Yards per play | 5.2818th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.70 | Yards allowed per play | 6.3032nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–6 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 15321st of 32 |
| 27th of 321377 | Elo rating | 147618th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–9 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–8 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–4 CIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.