Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing17/29, 189 YDS, 1 INT
- Bhayshul TutenRushing13 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Parker WashingtonReceiving7 REC, 98 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing22/31, 288 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jonah ColemanRushing10 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving8 REC, 138 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:21Jonah Coleman 3 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)13–20
- Q411:47Nate Adkins 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)13–13
- Q34:58Wil Lutz 45 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q39:02Cam Little 23 Yd Field Goal13–3
- Q20:00Cam Little 44 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q27:01Wil Lutz 20 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q212:13Bhayshul Tuten 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:13Bhayshul Tuten 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 7 – 0 DEN · JAX 45% → 66% +21JAX 45% → 66%+21 pts
- Q20:00Cam Little 44 Yd Field GoalJAX 10 – 3 DEN · JAX 60% → 70% +10JAX 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q34:58Wil Lutz 45 Yd Field GoalJAX 13 – 6 DEN · DEN 16% → 25% +9DEN 16% → 25%+9 pts
- Q411:47Nate Adkins 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)JAX 13 – 13 DEN · DEN 18% → 53% +35DEN 18% → 53%+35 pts
- Q47:21Jonah Coleman 3 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)JAX 13 – 20 DEN · DEN 52% → 90% +38DEN 52% → 90%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML JAX +120 / DEN -142
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DEN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 50.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -127
- JAX +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 21.5 – 24.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +9 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +3 Elo | DEN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 52.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 55.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.9 | Points scored | 23.614th of 32 |
| 8th of 3219.8 | Points allowed | 18.33rd of 32 |
| 4th of 32+8.1 | Margin | +5.37th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.25 | Yards per play | 5.3315th of 32 |
| 8th of 324.98 | Yards allowed per play | 4.461st of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 4th of 326–2 | Road vs home | 8–11st of 32 |
| 30th of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 146331st of 32 |
| 6th of 321595 | Elo rating | 15638th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  JAX |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–6 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 1–0 DEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.