Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing17/28, 131 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- J.K. DobbinsRushing8 CAR, 36 YDS
- Evan EngramReceiving4 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing15/27, 184 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing23 CAR, 173 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis KelceReceiving3 REC, 71 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q414:39Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)10–31
- Q33:17Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q37:34Wil Lutz 31 Yd Field Goal10–21
- Q312:43Kenneth Walker III 60 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)7–21
- Q21:39Rashee Rice 13 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–14
- Q13:48Evan Engram 19 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–7
- Q18:11Patrick Mahomes 15 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:11Patrick Mahomes 15 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)DEN 0 – 7 KC · KC 53% → 71% +18KC 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q13:48Evan Engram 19 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 7 KC · DEN 29% → 47% +18DEN 29% → 47%+18 pts
- Q21:39Rashee Rice 13 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)DEN 7 – 14 KC · KC 52% → 75% +22KC 52% → 75%+22 pts
- Q312:43Kenneth Walker III 60 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)DEN 7 – 21 KC · KC 76% → 91% +15KC 76% → 91%+15 pts
- Q37:34Wil Lutz 31 Yd Field GoalDEN 10 – 21 KC · DEN 7% → 12% +5DEN 7% → 12%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- KC -2.5
- ML DEN +110 / KC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 40%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- KC 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.4 pts
- KC: Elo 38.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -113
- DEN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 20.0 – 22.5 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | +24 | DEN: Bo Nix · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +79 Elo | DEN 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 59.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3223.6 | Points scored | 21.321st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 19.36th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+5.3 | Margin | +2.012th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.33 | Yards per play | 5.1423rd of 32 |
| 1st of 324.46 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1713th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 5th of 325–2 | Road vs home | 5–418th of 32 |
| 31st of 321457 | Opponent Elo | 149523rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 321612 | Elo rating | 148317th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  DEN |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–10 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 4–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–2 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.