Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Shane BuechelePassing7/14, 88 YDS
- Brashard SmithRushing12 CAR, 56 YDS
- Hollywood BrownReceiving3 REC, 64 YDS
Raiders- Aidan O'ConnellPassing10/22, 102 YDS
- Ashton JeantyRushing26 CAR, 87 YDS
- Michael MayerReceiving3 REC, 47 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:08Daniel Carlson 60 Yd Field Goal12–14
- Q41:01Harrison Butker 41 Yd Field Goal12–11
- Q43:33Harrison Butker 47 Yd Field Goal9–11
- Q44:37Shane Buechele Sacked by Tyree Wilson For 10 Yd Loss for Safety6–11
- Q413:16Daniel Carlson 55 Yd Field Goal6–9
- Q34:11Harrison Butker 40 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q21:52Daniel Carlson 23 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q27:20Daniel Carlson 32 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q14:58Harrison Butker 36 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:11Harrison Butker 40 Yd Field GoalKC 6 – 6 LV · KC 46% → 59% +13KC 46% → 59%+13 pts
- Q413:16Daniel Carlson 55 Yd Field GoalKC 6 – 9 LV · LV 42% → 58% +16LV 42% → 58%+16 pts
- Q43:33Harrison Butker 47 Yd Field GoalKC 9 – 11 LV · KC 12% → 34% +22KC 12% → 34%+22 pts
- Q41:01Harrison Butker 41 Yd Field GoalKC 12 – 11 LV · KC 18% → 70% +52KC 18% → 70%+52 pts
- Q40:08Daniel Carlson 60 Yd Field GoalKC 12 – 14 LV · LV 9% → >99% +91LV 9% → >99%+91 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- KC -3.5
- ML KC -218 / LV +180
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -6.5
- KC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.6 pts
- KC: Elo 72.3%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- KC -196
- LV +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 19.5 – 16.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 35.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1187 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −149 | −43 | KC: Chris Oladokun, usually Patrick Mahomes · LV: Kenny Pickett, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +167 Elo | KC 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 70.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 66.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3221.9 | Points scored | 14.232nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.6 | Points allowed | 26.326th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.3 | Margin | −12.132nd of 32 |
| 18th of 325.29 | Yards per play | 4.4730th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.29 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1812th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 0–1032nd of 32 |
| 29th of 321–5 | Road vs home | 1–730th of 32 |
| 10th of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 15216th of 32 |
| 17th of 321496 | Elo rating | 118732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders | 4–12 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–1 LV in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.