New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing22/30, 207 YDS
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing14 CAR, 62 YDS
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving11 REC, 113 YDS
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing20/28, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing16 CAR, 60 YDS
- Michael MayerReceiving9 REC, 89 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:40Jaxson Dart 2 Yd Rush (Ben Sauls Kick)34–10
- Q30:18Deonte Banks 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Ben Sauls Kick)27–10
- Q30:31Tyler Lockett 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)20–10
- Q37:17Ben Sauls 23 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q20:00Ben Sauls 32 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q25:56Jaxson Dart 12 Yd Rush (Ben Sauls Kick)14–3
- Q29:41Daniel Carlson 42 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q10:00Devin Singletary 1 Yd Rush (Ben Sauls Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:00Devin Singletary 1 Yd Rush (Ben Sauls Kick)NYG 7 – 0 LV · NYG 58% → 76% +18NYG 58% → 76%+18 pts
- Q29:41Daniel Carlson 42 Yd Field GoalNYG 7 – 3 LV · LV 24% → 31% +8LV 24% → 31%+8 pts
- Q25:56Jaxson Dart 12 Yd Rush (Ben Sauls Kick)NYG 14 – 3 LV · NYG 69% → 86% +17NYG 69% → 86%+17 pts
- Q30:31Tyler Lockett 4 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)NYG 20 – 10 LV · LV 1% → 9% +8LV 1% → 9%+8 pts
- Q30:18Deonte Banks 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Ben Sauls Kick)NYG 27 – 10 LV · NYG 91% → 99% +7NYG 91% → 99%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- NYG -3
- ML NYG -162 / LV +136
- Pre-line forecast
- NYG 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NYG 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- NYG: Elo 50.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NYG -142
- LV +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 21.8 – 18.8 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1295 | 1227 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −4 | +24 | NYG: Jaxson Dart · LV: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYG +3 Elo | NYG 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYG 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYG 50.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYG 58.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.9 | Points scored | 14.532nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3227.5 | Points allowed | 25.725th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−6.6 | Margin | −11.332nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.19 | Yards per play | 4.4830th of 32 |
| 29th of 325.91 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1712th of 32 |
| 29th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 32 |
| 32nd of 320–8 | Road vs home | 1–630th of 32 |
| 1st of 321542 | Opponent Elo | 15325th of 32 |
| 30th of 321295 | Elo rating | 122732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 0–1 LV in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.