New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing24/31, 321 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Drake MayeRushing4 CAR, 26 YDS, 1 TD
- Rhamondre StevensonReceiving5 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing22/33, 308 YDS, 2 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing22 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- Luther Burden IIIReceiving4 REC, 130 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:37Andy Borregales 47 Yd Field Goal24–30
- Q41:34Cairo Santos 58 Yd Field Goal21–30
- Q33:46Eli Raridon 30 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)21–27
- Q39:41Colston Loveland 12 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)14–27
- Q20:00Rhamondre Stevenson 48 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)14–20
- Q20:14Luther Burden III 24 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)7–20
- Q27:04Cairo Santos 31 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q211:33Drake Maye 7 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)7–10
- Q11:38D'Andre Swift 4 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)0–10
- Q19:53Cairo Santos 43 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:38D'Andre Swift 4 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)NE 0 – 10 CHI · CHI 65% → 81% +16CHI 65% → 81%+16 pts
- Q211:33Drake Maye 7 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 7 – 10 CHI · NE 18% → 35% +17NE 18% → 35%+17 pts
- Q20:00Rhamondre Stevenson 48 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 14 – 20 CHI · NE 10% → 25% +15NE 10% → 25%+15 pts
- Q39:41Colston Loveland 12 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)NE 14 – 27 CHI · CHI 76% → 92% +16CHI 76% → 92%+16 pts
- Q33:46Eli Raridon 30 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 21 – 27 CHI · NE 6% → 22% +16NE 6% → 22%+16 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Bears 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3
- ML NE +130 / CHI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -1
- CHI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- CHI: Elo 46.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -135
- NE +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 23.8 – 26.8 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1634 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Injuries | −15 | — | Key absences: Romeo Doubs |
| Elo ratings | NE +23 Elo | NE 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 51.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 57.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.7 | Points scored | 25.012th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218.8 | Points allowed | 19.86th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.8 | Margin | +5.25th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.80 | Yards per play | 5.3116th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.22 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0331st of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–112th of 32 |
| 6th of 321536 | Opponent Elo | 148822nd of 32 |
| 5th of 321620 | Elo rating | 15928th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2–1 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2–1 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NE 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.