Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing16/25, 153 YDS, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing15 CAR, 82 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving6 REC, 65 YDS
Bears- Case KeenumPassing24/34, 247 YDS, 2 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing20 CAR, 84 YDS
- Kalif RaymondReceiving6 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q47:19Case Keenum 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)7–27
- Q35:47Kalif Raymond 41 Yd pass from Case Keenum (Cairo Santos Kick)7–20
- Q310:17Cairo Santos 48 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q20:00Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)7–10
- Q21:52Cairo Santos 29 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q18:47Luther Burden III 8 Yd pass from Case Keenum (Cairo Santos Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:47Luther Burden III 8 Yd pass from Case Keenum (Cairo Santos Kick)PHI 0 – 7 CHI · CHI 38% → 56% +18CHI 38% → 56%+18 pts
- Q21:52Cairo Santos 29 Yd Field GoalPHI 0 – 10 CHI · CHI 64% → 73% +9CHI 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q20:00Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 10 CHI · PHI 25% → 49% +23PHI 25% → 49%+23 pts
- Q310:17Cairo Santos 48 Yd Field GoalPHI 7 – 13 CHI · CHI 53% → 64% +11CHI 53% → 64%+11 pts
- Q35:47Kalif Raymond 41 Yd pass from Case Keenum (Cairo Santos Kick)PHI 7 – 20 CHI · CHI 67% → 88% +21CHI 67% → 88%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3
- ML PHI -185 / CHI +154
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5.5
- PHI 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.9%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -169
- CHI +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 22.8 – 19.8 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +10 | −140 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · CHI: Case Keenum, usually Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +138 Elo | PHI 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3222.3 | Points scored | 25.99th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 24.423rd of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.2 | Margin | +1.515th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.24 | Yards per play | 5.709th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.95 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0029th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
| 21st of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 15129th of 32 |
| 10th of 321561 | Elo rating | 153713th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  PHI |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–8 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.