Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing21/29, 269 YDS, 2 TD
- D'Andre SwiftRushing18 CAR, 124 YDS, 3 TD
- Kalif RaymondReceiving8 REC, 84 YDS
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing23/37, 361 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Chuba HubbardRushing10 CAR, 49 YDS, 1 TD
- Jalen CokerReceiving8 REC, 138 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:40D'Andre Swift 28 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)59–37
- Q44:00Jalen Coker 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT blocked)52–37
- Q46:27Jahdae Walker 1 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)52–31
- Q30:40Kyle Monangai 61 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)45–31
- Q33:05D'Andre Swift 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)38–31
- Q39:02Chuba Hubbard 2 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)31–31
- Q20:22Caleb Williams 29 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)31–24
- Q22:35Ryan Fitzgerald 44 Yd Field Goal24–24
- Q25:20Cairo Santos 40 Yd Field Goal24–21
- Q28:42Bryce Young 7 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)21–21
- Q212:40Jalen Coker 51 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)21–14
- Q213:57Cole Kmet 22 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Cairo Santos Kick)21–7
- Q11:59D'Andre Swift 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)14–7
- Q15:52Caleb Williams 9 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)7–7
- Q111:33Chuba Hubbard 4 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:52Caleb Williams 9 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 7 – 7 CAR · CHI 40% → 59% +19CHI 40% → 59%+19 pts
- Q28:42Bryce Young 7 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CHI 21 – 21 CAR · CAR 23% → 42% +19CAR 23% → 42%+19 pts
- Q20:22Caleb Williams 29 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 31 – 24 CAR · CHI 57% → 79% +22CHI 57% → 79%+22 pts
- Q39:02Chuba Hubbard 2 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CHI 31 – 31 CAR · CAR 20% → 44% +24CAR 20% → 44%+24 pts
- Q33:05D'Andre Swift 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 38 – 31 CAR · CHI 56% → 83% +27CHI 56% → 83%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3
- ML CHI -166 / CAR +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- CHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CHI: Elo 60.6%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CHI -150
- CAR +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 25.3 – 22.3 CAR
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +5 | CHI: Caleb Williams · CAR: Bryce Young (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +75 Elo | CHI 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 59.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 60.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3225.9 | Points scored | 18.327th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3224.4 | Points allowed | 22.415th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.5 | Margin | −4.123rd of 32 |
| 9th of 325.70 | Yards per play | 4.9726th of 32 |
| 29th of 326.00 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4820th of 32 |
| 6th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–4 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150316th of 32 |
| 13th of 321534 | Elo rating | 142627th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CHI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–6 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–0 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.