Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing24/35, 266 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing7 CAR, 10 YDS
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving4 REC, 85 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing16/22, 203 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing26 CAR, 85 YDS
- Cade OttonReceiving7 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:27Jalen Coker 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)14–16
- Q414:12Chase McLaughlin 48 Yd Field Goal7–16
- Q20:02Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field Goal7–13
- Q210:50Tommy Tremble 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–10
- Q11:57Chase McLaughlin 29 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q19:31Cade Otton 18 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:31Cade Otton 18 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)CAR 0 – 7 TB · TB 58% → 74% +17TB 58% → 74%+17 pts
- Q210:50Tommy Tremble 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CAR 7 – 10 TB · CAR 18% → 34% +17CAR 18% → 34%+17 pts
- Q20:02Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field GoalCAR 7 – 13 TB · TB 66% → 75% +9TB 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q414:12Chase McLaughlin 48 Yd Field GoalCAR 7 – 16 TB · TB 81% → 90% +9TB 81% → 90%+9 pts
- Q42:27Jalen Coker 8 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CAR 14 – 16 TB · CAR <1% → 25% +25CAR <1% → 25%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- TB -3
- ML CAR +130 / TB -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -2
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- TB: Elo 56.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -139
- CAR +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 19.8 – 22.8 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 42.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | — | CAR: Bryce Young · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +47 Elo | TB 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.6 | Points scored | 22.818th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.8 | Points allowed | 24.823rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.2 | Margin | −2.120th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.93 | Yards per play | 5.1024th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7226th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 32 |
| 18th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 32 |
| 15th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 15199th of 32 |
| 25th of 321407 | Elo rating | 142324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–7 | 5–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–4 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.