Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing26/37, 264 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Tank BigsbyRushing13 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD
- DeVonta SmithReceiving10 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
Titans- Cam WardPassing13/20, 183 YDS
- Tony PollardRushing14 CAR, 64 YDS
- Elic AyomanorReceiving2 REC, 69 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:09Darius Cooper 3 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)24–20
- Q41:56Joey Slye 33 Yd Field Goal17–20
- Q30:57Cam Ward 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)17–17
- Q38:08Jake Elliott 58 Yd Field Goal17–10
- Q20:00Joey Slye 37 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q21:49DeVonta Smith 22 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)14–7
- Q212:49Tank Bigsby 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)7–7
- Q14:22Cam Ward 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:22Cam Ward 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)PHI 0 – 7 TEN · TEN 28% → 47% +18TEN 28% → 47%+18 pts
- Q212:49Tank Bigsby 2 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 7 TEN · PHI 51% → 70% +20PHI 51% → 70%+20 pts
- Q30:57Cam Ward 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick)PHI 17 – 17 TEN · TEN 12% → 37% +25TEN 12% → 37%+25 pts
- Q41:56Joey Slye 33 Yd Field GoalPHI 17 – 20 TEN · TEN 45% → 83% +37TEN 45% → 83%+37 pts
- Q40:09Darius Cooper 3 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 24 – 20 TEN · PHI <1% → >99% +100PHI <1% → >99%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7
- ML PHI -325 / TEN +260
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -8.5
- PHI 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 76.8%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -279
- TEN +279 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 23.3 – 16.3 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1319 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +11 | 0 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · TEN: Cam Ward (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +208 Elo | PHI 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 75.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 73.6% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3222.3 | Points scored | 16.730th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.1 | Points allowed | 28.128th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.2 | Margin | −11.431st of 32 |
| 19th of 325.24 | Yards per play | 4.4031st of 32 |
| 7th of 324.95 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8128th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–3 | Road vs home | 1–832nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 15241st of 32 |
| 12th of 321553 | Elo rating | 131932nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  PHI |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–8 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–8 | — |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.