New York Jets at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Geno SmithPassing19/24, 215 YDS
- Breece HallRushing22 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- Garrett WilsonReceiving6 REC, 79 YDS
Titans- Cam WardPassing19/32, 140 YDS, 1 TD
- Tony PollardRushing7 CAR, 35 YDS
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving5 REC, 38 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:42Elic Ayomanor 11 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)23–10
- Q45:00Jason Sanders 52 Yd Field Goal23–3
- Q34:33Jason Sanders 51 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q39:41Breece Hall 4 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)17–3
- Q25:03Jason Sanders 33 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q15:03Joey Slye 42 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q110:45Kenyon Sadiq 3 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:45Kenyon Sadiq 3 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)NYJ 7 – 0 TEN · NYJ 49% → 66% +18NYJ 49% → 66%+18 pts
- Q15:03Joey Slye 42 Yd Field GoalNYJ 7 – 3 TEN · TEN 33% → 40% +8TEN 33% → 40%+8 pts
- Q25:03Jason Sanders 33 Yd Field GoalNYJ 10 – 3 TEN · NYJ 62% → 71% +9NYJ 62% → 71%+9 pts
- Q39:41Breece Hall 4 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)NYJ 17 – 3 TEN · NYJ 75% → 91% +17NYJ 75% → 91%+17 pts
- Q34:33Jason Sanders 51 Yd Field GoalNYJ 20 – 3 TEN · NYJ 94% → 97% +3NYJ 94% → 97%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Titans 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- TEN -1.5
- ML NYJ -102 / TEN -118
- Pre-line forecast
- TEN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYJ -0.5
- TEN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- TEN: Elo 48.3%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TEN -106
- NYJ +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 19.0 – 20.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 39.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1351 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +36 | 0 | NYJ: Geno Smith, usually Aaron Rodgers · TEN: Cam Ward (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NYJ +12 Elo | NYJ 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYJ 51.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEN 51.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3217.6 | Points scored | 16.730th of 32 |
| 31st of 3229.6 | Points allowed | 28.128th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−11.9 | Margin | −11.431st of 32 |
| 29th of 324.44 | Yards per play | 4.4031st of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.60 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8128th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–7 | Road vs home | 1–832nd of 32 |
| 6th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 15281st of 32 |
| 30th of 321364 | Elo rating | 135131st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NYJ |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | — |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 1–0 TEN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.