Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing18/34, 164 YDS, 2 TD
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRushing16 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- Antonio WilliamsReceiving4 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing14/25, 203 YDS, 3 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing15 CAR, 83 YDS
- Dallas GoedertReceiving4 REC, 77 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:01Antonio Williams 1 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–24
- Q46:02Dallas Goedert 43 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)16–24
- Q49:59Stefon Diggs 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)16–17
- Q30:44Jake Elliott 35 Yd Field Goal9–17
- Q21:50Jacory Croskey-Merritt 1 Yd Rush (Drew Stevens PAT blocked)9–14
- Q26:27Dontayvion Wicks 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–14
- Q214:11Dallas Goedert 17 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)3–7
- Q111:23Drew Stevens 55 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q214:11Dallas Goedert 17 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)WSH 3 – 7 PHI · PHI 56% → 75% +19PHI 56% → 75%+19 pts
- Q26:27Dontayvion Wicks 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)WSH 3 – 14 PHI · PHI 75% → 89% +14PHI 75% → 89%+14 pts
- Q49:59Stefon Diggs 10 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Drew Stevens Kick)WSH 16 – 17 PHI · WSH 8% → 37% +29WSH 8% → 37%+29 pts
- Q46:02Dallas Goedert 43 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)WSH 16 – 24 PHI · PHI 63% → 96% +33PHI 63% → 96%+33 pts
- Q41:01Antonio Williams 1 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)WSH 22 – 24 PHI · WSH <1% → 15% +15WSH <1% → 15%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -6
- ML WSH +195 / PHI -238
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.5%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -205
- WSH +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 18.8 – 24.8 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +42 | +11 | WSH: Jayden Daniels · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +96 Elo | PHI 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.9 | Points scored | 22.319th of 32 |
| 27th of 3226.5 | Points allowed | 19.15th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−5.6 | Margin | +3.210th of 32 |
| 12th of 325.47 | Yards per play | 5.2419th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.02 | Yards allowed per play | 4.957th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 19th of 323–5 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 17th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321452 | Elo rating | 154313th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–5 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.