Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Carson WentzPassing11/20, 143 YDS
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing23 CAR, 105 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving3 REC, 55 YDS
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing15/26, 138 YDS, 1 INT
- Kyle MonangaiRushing10 CAR, 47 YDS
- D'Andre SwiftReceiving5 REC, 54 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:09Will Reichard 39 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q28:18Will Reichard 49 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q15:03Cairo Santos 50 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q111:03Will Reichard 35 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:03Will Reichard 35 Yd Field GoalMIN 3 – 0 CHI · MIN 36% → 43% +7MIN 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q15:03Cairo Santos 50 Yd Field GoalMIN 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 56% → 64% +8CHI 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q28:18Will Reichard 49 Yd Field GoalMIN 6 – 3 CHI · MIN 38% → 47% +9MIN 38% → 47%+9 pts
- Q41:09Will Reichard 39 Yd Field GoalMIN 9 – 3 CHI · MIN 90% → >99% +9MIN 90% → >99%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML MIN +180 / CHI -218
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1
- CHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 54.5%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- CHI -185
- MIN +185 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 21.0 – 25.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −33 | +9 | MIN: Carson Wentz, usually J.J. McCarthy · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +31 Elo | CHI 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 56.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 64.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 3220.2 | Points scored | 25.99th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.6 | Points allowed | 24.423rd of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.515th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.90 | Yards per play | 5.709th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.69 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0029th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 11th of 324–3 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 32 |
| 10th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 150217th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321611 | Elo rating | 156410th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–2 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.