Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing21/42, 387 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- MarShawn LloydRushing13 CAR, 37 YDS
- Christian WatsonReceiving6 REC, 147 YDS, 2 TD
Vikings- Carson WentzPassing12/19, 133 YDS, 3 TD
- Jordan MasonRushing15 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- Justin JeffersonReceiving8 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:55Justin Jefferson 9 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)22–39
- Q44:48Jordan Mason 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)22–32
- Q46:37Aaron Jones Sr. 3 Yd Rush (Carson Wentz Pass to Justin Jefferson for Two-Point Conversion)22–25
- Q32:08T.J. Hockenson 16 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)22–17
- Q35:09Trey Smack 26 Yd Field Goal22–10
- Q20:14Christian Watson 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)19–10
- Q21:55Justin Jefferson 39 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)12–10
- Q213:52Trey Smack 43 Yd Field Goal12–3
- Q11:38Will Reichard 38 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q17:43Christian Watson 81 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack PAT Failed)9–0
- Q112:11Trey Smack 59 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:55Justin Jefferson 39 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)GB 12 – 10 MIN · MIN 26% → 49% +22MIN 26% → 49%+22 pts
- Q20:14Christian Watson 2 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)GB 19 – 10 MIN · GB 52% → 75% +23GB 52% → 75%+23 pts
- Q32:08T.J. Hockenson 16 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)GB 22 – 17 MIN · MIN 9% → 31% +22MIN 9% → 31%+22 pts
- Q46:37Aaron Jones Sr. 3 Yd Rush (Carson Wentz Pass to Justin Jefferson for Two-Point Conversion)GB 22 – 25 MIN · MIN 19% → 74% +55MIN 19% → 74%+55 pts
- Q44:48Jordan Mason 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)GB 22 – 32 MIN · MIN 76% → 99% +22MIN 76% → 99%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Vikings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML GB +120 / MIN -142
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -135
- GB +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 22.0 – 24.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +18 | +56 | GB: Jordan Love · MIN: Kyler Murray, usually J.J. McCarthy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +142 Elo | MIN 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 20.226th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.2 | Points allowed | 19.67th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.8 | Margin | +0.617th of 32 |
| 10th of 325.60 | Yards per play | 4.9028th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.00 | Yards allowed per play | 4.693rd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4–1 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 32 |
| 11th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 15175th of 32 |
| 15th of 321521 | Elo rating | 15906th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  GB |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–11 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GB 2–4 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.