New York Jets at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Geno SmithPassing20/30, 252 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Braelon AllenRushing17 CAR, 78 YDS
- Omar Cooper Jr.Receiving6 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing18/32, 235 YDS, 3 TD
- Corey KinerRushing11 CAR, 57 YDS
- DeMario DouglasReceiving7 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:32Jason Sanders 36 Yd Field Goal19–26
- Q41:12Andy Borregales 27 Yd Field Goal16–26
- Q47:20Jason Sanders 40 Yd Field Goal16–23
- Q414:10Hunter Henry 7 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales PAT Failed)13–23
- Q34:46Jason Sanders 36 Yd Field Goal13–17
- Q310:24Omar Cooper Jr. 48 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)10–17
- Q20:14DeMario Douglas 9 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)3–17
- Q21:46Andy Borregales 32 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q14:10Romeo Doubs 42 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)3–7
- Q18:17Jason Sanders 42 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:10Romeo Doubs 42 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NYJ 3 – 7 NE · NE 67% → 82% +15NE 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q20:14DeMario Douglas 9 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NYJ 3 – 17 NE · NE 87% → 96% +9NE 87% → 96%+9 pts
- Q310:24Omar Cooper Jr. 48 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)NYJ 10 – 17 NE · NYJ 4% → 13% +9NYJ 4% → 13%+9 pts
- Q34:46Jason Sanders 36 Yd Field GoalNYJ 13 – 17 NE · NYJ 12% → 20% +8NYJ 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q414:10Hunter Henry 7 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales PAT Failed)NYJ 13 – 23 NE · NE 80% → 95% +14NE 80% → 95%+14 pts
The pick
Locked forecast: logged before the game started and graded as-is. Anchored on the betting line, which beat every rating model in testing.
Patriots 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- NE -7.5
- ML NYJ +285 / NE -360
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -11.5
- NE 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- NE: Elo 83.8%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- NE -314
- NYJ +314 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYJ 18.0 – 25.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYJ | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1377 | 1627 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Elo ratings | NE +286 Elo | NE 83.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 83.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 83.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 75.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYJ | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3218.6 | Points scored | 22.020th of 32 |
| 5th of 3219.2 | Points allowed | 18.84th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.6 | Margin | +3.210th of 32 |
| 22nd of 324.83 | Yards per play | 5.848th of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.62 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1811th of 32 |
| 19th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 27th of 321466 | Opponent Elo | 15683rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321373 | Elo rating | 16117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYJ |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–1–1 | 3–1–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–1–1 | 3–1–1 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 2–1–1 | 1–1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYJ 2–4 NE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.