Cleveland Browns at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing15/33, 155 YDS, 1 TD
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing14 CAR, 44 YDS
- Isaiah BondReceiving3 REC, 74 YDS
Jets- Geno SmithPassing17/30, 182 YDS, 1 TD
- Braelon AllenRushing24 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- Garrett WilsonReceiving7 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:01Braelon Allen 22 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)12–17
- Q46:15Denzel Boston 29 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt PAT Failed)12–10
- Q414:37Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q210:14Andre Szmyt 41 Yd Field Goal6–7
- Q13:27Andre Szmyt 25 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q19:17Garrett Wilson 32 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:17Garrett Wilson 32 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)CLE 0 – 7 NYJ · NYJ 54% → 71% +17NYJ 54% → 71%+17 pts
- Q210:14Andre Szmyt 41 Yd Field GoalCLE 6 – 7 NYJ · CLE 35% → 44% +9CLE 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q414:37Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field GoalCLE 6 – 10 NYJ · NYJ 57% → 71% +14NYJ 57% → 71%+14 pts
- Q46:15Denzel Boston 29 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt PAT Failed)CLE 12 – 10 NYJ · CLE 21% → 64% +43CLE 21% → 64%+43 pts
- Q43:01Braelon Allen 22 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)CLE 12 – 17 NYJ · NYJ 30% → 92% +63NYJ 30% → 92%+63 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- NYJ -2.5
- ML CLE +114 / NYJ -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYJ 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -2.5
- NYJ 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.8 pts
- NYJ: Elo 40.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYJ -118
- CLE +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 18.0 – 20.5 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 38.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1345 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +16 | +38 | CLE: Deshaun Watson · NYJ: Geno Smith, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +68 Elo | CLE 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYJ 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYJ 54.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3220.3 | Points scored | 19.025th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 21.011th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−3.5 | Margin | −2.017th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.0222nd of 32 |
| 17th of 325.45 | Yards allowed per play | 5.038th of 32 |
| 9th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 0–123rd of 32 |
| 12th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 147024th of 32 |
| 19th of 321471 | Elo rating | 134531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CLE |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 NYJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.