Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Deshaun WatsonPassing24/30, 238 YDS, 2 TD
- Deshaun WatsonRushing7 CAR, 22 YDS
- Denzel BostonReceiving5 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing21/34, 182 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Bucky IrvingRushing17 CAR, 89 YDS
- Tez JohnsonReceiving1 REC, 49 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q43:51Blake Whiteheart 17 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick)23–19
- Q49:58Chase McLaughlin 31 Yd Field Goal16–19
- Q31:23Denzel Boston 55 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick)16–16
- Q33:45Andre Szmyt 34 Yd Field Goal9–16
- Q39:33Emeka Egbuka 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)6–16
- Q20:12Chase McLaughlin 31 Yd Field Goal6–9
- Q213:59Andre Szmyt 34 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q14:02Chase McLaughlin 45 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q17:12Andre Szmyt 50 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q111:10Chase McLaughlin 59 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:12Chase McLaughlin 31 Yd Field GoalCLE 6 – 9 TB · TB 70% → 78% +9TB 70% → 78%+9 pts
- Q39:33Emeka Egbuka 5 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)CLE 6 – 16 TB · TB 78% → 93% +15TB 78% → 93%+15 pts
- Q31:23Denzel Boston 55 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 16 – 16 TB · CLE 11% → 35% +24CLE 11% → 35%+24 pts
- Q49:58Chase McLaughlin 31 Yd Field GoalCLE 16 – 19 TB · TB 62% → 78% +16TB 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q43:51Blake Whiteheart 17 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 23 – 19 TB · CLE 18% → 79% +61CLE 18% → 79%+61 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- TB -8.5
- ML CLE +330 / TB -425
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -2
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.9 pts
- TB: Elo 57.8%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -325
- CLE +325 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 16.5 – 25.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | — | CLE: Deshaun Watson, usually Shedeur Sanders · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +54 Elo | TB 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 60.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 76.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3216.4 | Points scored | 22.418th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 24.220th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−5.9 | Margin | −1.819th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.33 | Yards per play | 5.1025th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.75 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7325th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 24th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 32 |
| 8th of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 150712th of 32 |
| 27th of 321414 | Elo rating | 143825th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  CLE |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 5–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.