Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing23/28, 216 YDS
- Bucky IrvingRushing8 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Emeka EgbukaReceiving5 REC, 63 YDS
Bengals- Joe BurrowPassing25/35, 254 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Chase BrownRushing16 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- Mike GesickiReceiving5 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:19Baker Mayfield 9 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)27–33
- Q45:19Evan McPherson 32 Yd Field Goal20–33
- Q414:04Evan McPherson 58 Yd Field Goal20–30
- Q32:16Josiah Trotter 38 Yd Interception Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)20–27
- Q33:41Chase McLaughlin 51 Yd Field Goal13–27
- Q310:03Evan McPherson 55 Yd Field Goal10–27
- Q20:06Evan McPherson 20 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q21:49Bucky Irving 10 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–21
- Q25:32Chase Brown 5 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)3–21
- Q11:48Mike Gesicki 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)3–14
- Q16:18Demetrius Knight Jr. 27 Yd Fumble Return (Evan McPherson Kick)3–7
- Q19:09Chase McLaughlin 34 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:18Demetrius Knight Jr. 27 Yd Fumble Return (Evan McPherson Kick)TB 3 – 7 CIN · CIN 55% → 72% +18CIN 55% → 72%+18 pts
- Q11:48Mike Gesicki 2 Yd pass from Joe Burrow (Evan McPherson Kick)TB 3 – 14 CIN · CIN 72% → 86% +14CIN 72% → 86%+14 pts
- Q25:32Chase Brown 5 Yd Rush (Evan McPherson Kick)TB 3 – 21 CIN · CIN 88% → 96% +8CIN 88% → 96%+8 pts
- Q21:49Bucky Irving 10 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 10 – 21 CIN · TB 4% → 11% +8TB 4% → 11%+8 pts
- Q32:16Josiah Trotter 38 Yd Interception Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 20 – 27 CIN · TB 3% → 16% +12TB 3% → 16%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bengals 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- CIN -3.5
- ML TB +164 / CIN -198
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN -3
- CIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 61.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CIN -174
- TB +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 23.5 – 27.0 CIN
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +29 | TB: Baker Mayfield · CIN: Joe Burrow (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +78 Elo | CIN 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 63.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.4 | Points scored | 24.412th of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.2 | Points allowed | 28.930th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.8 | Margin | −4.626th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.10 | Yards per play | 5.2916th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.73 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1832nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 17th of 324–5 | Road vs home | 3–626th of 32 |
| 10th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 15155th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321456 | Elo rating | 146919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  TB |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–12 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–8 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.