Green Bay Packers at New York Jets, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Packers- Jordan LovePassing16/29, 145 YDS, 2 TD
- Kaleb JohnsonRushing8 CAR, 32 YDS
- Matthew GoldenReceiving4 REC, 58 YDS
Jets- Geno SmithPassing27/41, 247 YDS, 1 TD
- Breece HallRushing16 CAR, 29 YDS
- Breece HallReceiving5 REC, 63 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT5:23Trey Smack 26 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q42:59Trey Smack 34 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q47:58Christian Watson 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)14–17
- Q411:04Jason Sanders 32 Yd Field Goal7–17
- Q32:30Garrett Wilson 5 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)7–14
- Q26:04Braelon Allen 5 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)7–7
- Q29:35MarShawn Lloyd 6 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:04Braelon Allen 5 Yd Rush (Jason Sanders Kick)GB 7 – 7 NYJ · NYJ 21% → 41% +20NYJ 21% → 41%+20 pts
- Q32:30Garrett Wilson 5 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Jason Sanders Kick)GB 7 – 14 NYJ · NYJ 44% → 74% +31NYJ 44% → 74%+31 pts
- Q47:58Christian Watson 3 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Trey Smack Kick)GB 14 – 17 NYJ · GB 5% → 34% +29GB 5% → 34%+29 pts
- Q42:59Trey Smack 34 Yd Field GoalGB 17 – 17 NYJ · GB 22% → 53% +31GB 22% → 53%+31 pts
- OT5:23Trey Smack 26 Yd Field GoalGB 20 – 17 NYJ · GB 54% → 76% +23GB 54% → 76%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- GB -3.5
- ML GB -185 / NYJ +154
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -2
- GB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- GB: Elo 56.7%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- GB -162
- NYJ +162 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GB 24.0 – 20.5 NYJ
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GB | NYJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +18 | +39 | GB: Jordan Love · NYJ: Geno Smith, usually Aaron Rodgers (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +47 Elo | GB 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 58.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 61.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| GB | Stat | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3223.0 | Points scored | 17.629th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.2 | Points allowed | 29.631st of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.8 | Margin | −11.932nd of 32 |
| 10th of 325.60 | Yards per play | 4.4429th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.00 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6023rd of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 32 |
| 13th of 324–4–1 | Road vs home | 2–628th of 32 |
| 9th of 321509 | Opponent Elo | 150711th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Elo rating | 139530th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  GB |  NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–11 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.