Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Kirk CousinsPassing19/28, 243 YDS, 1 TD
- Ashton JeantyRushing10 CAR, 27 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving8 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing26/34, 374 YDS, 4 TD
- Rhamondre StevensonRushing13 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- Kyle WilliamsReceiving3 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q46:06DeMario Douglas 8 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)17–45
- Q410:49Dylan Laube 2 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)17–38
- Q414:12Andy Borregales 28 Yd Field Goal10–38
- Q33:10Drake Maye 3 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)10–35
- Q38:30Matt Gay 46 Yd Field Goal10–28
- Q312:58Kyle Williams 34 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–28
- Q20:24Hunter Henry 11 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–21
- Q11:30Rhamondre Stevenson 5 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)7–14
- Q18:19Brock Bowers 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)7–7
- Q111:23DeMario Douglas 35 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:23DeMario Douglas 35 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)LV 0 – 7 NE · NE 74% → 87% +12NE 74% → 87%+12 pts
- Q18:19Brock Bowers 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)LV 7 – 7 NE · LV 13% → 26% +13LV 13% → 26%+13 pts
- Q11:30Rhamondre Stevenson 5 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)LV 7 – 14 NE · NE 72% → 86% +14NE 72% → 86%+14 pts
- Q20:24Hunter Henry 11 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)LV 7 – 21 NE · NE 86% → 96% +9NE 86% → 96%+9 pts
- Q312:58Kyle Williams 34 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)LV 7 – 28 NE · NE 96% → >99% +3NE 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- NE -3.5
- ML LV +285 / NE -360
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -7.5
- NE 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- NE: Elo 74.3%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- NE -300
- LV +300 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 21.0 – 24.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1591 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +38 | +12 | LV: Kirk Cousins, usually Geno Smith · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +184 Elo | NE 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 74.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 75.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3228.8 | Points scored | 16.330th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 19.36th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+7.8 | Margin | −3.021st of 32 |
| 17th of 325.12 | Yards per play | 5.2415th of 32 |
| 20th of 325.57 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1310th of 32 |
| 1st of 312–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 29th of 321450 | Opponent Elo | 16161st of 32 |
| 25th of 321417 | Elo rating | 15917th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LV |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 14–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 10–4 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 2–0 NE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.