Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Malik WillisPassing15/27, 220 YDS, 1 INT
- Malik WillisRushing6 CAR, 39 YDS, 1 TD
- Caleb DouglasReceiving5 REC, 94 YDS
Raiders- Kirk CousinsPassing21/30, 160 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing23 CAR, 102 YDS
- Ashton JeantyReceiving6 REC, 45 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q32:34Matt Gay 30 Yd Field Goal13–27
- Q39:58Ashton Jeanty 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)13–24
- Q312:44Malik Willis 14 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)13–17
- Q20:00Riley Patterson 37 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q21:07Ashton Jeanty 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)3–17
- Q24:08Riley Patterson 41 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q210:22Matt Gay 47 Yd Field Goal0–10
- Q11:33Jack Bech 15 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:33Jack Bech 15 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)MIA 0 – 7 LV · LV 58% → 76% +18LV 58% → 76%+18 pts
- Q24:08Riley Patterson 41 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 10 LV · MIA 16% → 22% +7MIA 16% → 22%+7 pts
- Q21:07Ashton Jeanty 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)MIA 3 – 17 LV · LV 78% → 92% +14LV 78% → 92%+14 pts
- Q312:44Malik Willis 14 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 13 – 17 LV · MIA 12% → 30% +18MIA 12% → 30%+18 pts
- Q39:58Ashton Jeanty 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)MIA 13 – 24 LV · LV 70% → 89% +18LV 70% → 89%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raiders 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LV -3
- ML MIA +142 / LV -170
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- LV 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.6 pts
- LV: Elo 42.8%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- LV -144
- MIA +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 18.8 – 21.8 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1306 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −35 | +40 | MIA: Malik Willis, usually Tua Tagovailoa · LV: Kirk Cousins, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +51 Elo | MIA 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LV 59.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3220.4 | Points scored | 14.232nd of 32 |
| 24th of 3224.9 | Points allowed | 25.425th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.5 | Margin | −11.230th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.39 | Yards per play | 4.4030th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.80 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0411th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 32 |
| 24th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 2–730th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150515th of 32 |
| 19th of 321468 | Elo rating | 130632nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  MIA |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–0 LV in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.