Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing15/30, 225 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing22 CAR, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- Tyquan ThorntonReceiving5 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
Raiders- Kirk CousinsPassing31/52, 365 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing15 CAR, 58 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:46Brock Bowers 20 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Kirk Cousins Pass to Cody White for Two-Point Conversion)30–27
- Q43:02Kenneth Walker III 22 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)30–19
- Q43:21Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)23–19
- Q44:53Matt Gay 48 Yd Field Goal17–19
- Q411:12Matt Gay 44 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q414:50Tyquan Thornton 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)17–13
- Q20:00Matt Gay 48 Yd Field Goal10–13
- Q21:22Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q23:19Matt Gay 32 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q12:23Tyquan Thornton 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–7
- Q18:10Ian Thomas 27 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:10Ian Thomas 27 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)KC 0 – 7 LV · LV 37% → 55% +18LV 37% → 55%+18 pts
- Q12:23Tyquan Thornton 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 7 – 7 LV · KC 43% → 63% +20KC 43% → 63%+20 pts
- Q414:50Tyquan Thornton 8 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 17 – 13 LV · KC 42% → 75% +33KC 42% → 75%+33 pts
- Q44:53Matt Gay 48 Yd Field GoalKC 17 – 19 LV · LV 37% → 63% +26LV 37% → 63%+26 pts
- Q43:21Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)KC 23 – 19 LV · KC 33% → 88% +55KC 33% → 88%+55 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- KC -3.5
- ML KC -205 / LV +170
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -3.5
- KC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- KC: Elo 61.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- KC -180
- LV +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 25.5 – 22.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +22 | +36 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · LV: Kirk Cousins, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +83 Elo | KC 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 64.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 64.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3229.3 | Points scored | 29.36th of 32 |
| 4th of 3216.7 | Points allowed | 18.07th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+12.7 | Margin | +11.35th of 32 |
| 4th of 326.44 | Yards per play | 4.9224th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1612th of 32 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 32 |
| 16th of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 142431st of 32 |
| 10th of 321563 | Elo rating | 143024th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  KC |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–11 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 4–13 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–2 LV in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.