Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing22/31, 210 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing24 CAR, 92 YDS, 2 TD
- Josh DownsReceiving7 REC, 72 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing32/47, 382 YDS, 3 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing24 CAR, 117 YDS
- Travis KelceReceiving9 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- OT0:00Harrison Butker 40 Yd Field Goal30–33
- OT3:11Spencer Shrader 38 Yd Field Goal30–30
- OT5:09Harrison Butker 31 Yd Field Goal27–30
- Q45:37Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)27–27
- Q414:15Harrison Butker 28 Yd Field Goal20–27
- Q38:01Jalen Royals 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)20–24
- Q20:59Jonathan Taylor 24 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)20–17
- Q22:25Xavier Worthy 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)13–17
- Q29:44Spencer Shrader 49 Yd Field Goal13–10
- Q214:48Spencer Shrader 42 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q14:34Travis Kelce 13 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–10
- Q16:09Harrison Butker 46 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q18:25Tyler Warren 1 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:01Jalen Royals 1 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)IND 20 – 24 KC · KC 50% → 76% +26KC 50% → 76%+26 pts
- Q45:37Jonathan Taylor 5 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)IND 27 – 27 KC · IND 6% → 44% +38IND 6% → 44%+38 pts
- OT5:09Harrison Butker 31 Yd Field GoalIND 27 – 30 KC · KC 56% → 79% +23KC 56% → 79%+23 pts
- OT3:11Spencer Shrader 38 Yd Field GoalIND 30 – 30 KC · IND 17% → 45% +28IND 17% → 45%+28 pts
- OT0:00Harrison Butker 40 Yd Field GoalIND 30 – 33 KC · KC 58% → 100% +42KC 58% → 100%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- KC -6
- ML IND +215 / KC -265
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -5
- KC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- KC: Elo 67.1%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -227
- IND +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 20.3 – 26.3 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +27 | +23 | IND: Daniel Jones · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +124 Elo | KC 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 66.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 69.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| IND | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 3227.4 | Points scored | 21.321st of 32 |
| 21st of 3224.2 | Points allowed | 19.36th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+3.2 | Margin | +2.012th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.78 | Yards per play | 5.1423rd of 32 |
| 17th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1713th of 32 |
| 26th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 24th of 322–6 | Road vs home | 5–418th of 32 |
| 20th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 148526th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321440 | Elo rating | 153214th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  IND |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–7 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 4–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.