Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing17/25, 324 YDS, 1 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing24 CAR, 144 YDS, 3 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 150 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing19/31, 166 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing19 CAR, 98 YDS, 2 TD
- Alec PierceReceiving4 REC, 61 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:09Tyler Loop 45 Yd Field Goal41–23
- Q410:26Tyler Warren 9 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Spencer Shrader Kick)38–23
- Q412:46Derrick Henry 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)38–16
- Q37:55Spencer Shrader 58 Yd Field Goal31–16
- Q20:00Tyler Loop 57 Yd Field Goal31–13
- Q22:16Jonathan Taylor 3 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader Kick)28–13
- Q25:04Derrick Henry 32 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)28–6
- Q26:54Zay Flowers 54 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)21–6
- Q14:05Derrick Henry 4 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)14–6
- Q18:20Lamar Jackson 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)7–6
- Q110:33Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader PAT Failed)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:33Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Spencer Shrader PAT Failed)BAL 0 – 6 IND · IND 41% → 57% +16IND 41% → 57%+16 pts
- Q18:20Lamar Jackson 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 7 – 6 IND · BAL 43% → 61% +18BAL 43% → 61%+18 pts
- Q14:05Derrick Henry 4 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 14 – 6 IND · BAL 61% → 78% +17BAL 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q26:54Zay Flowers 54 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 21 – 6 IND · BAL 79% → 92% +12BAL 79% → 92%+12 pts
- Q25:04Derrick Henry 32 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 28 – 6 IND · BAL 92% → 98% +6BAL 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -3
- ML BAL -162 / IND +136
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -2
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -145
- IND +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 25.8 – 22.8 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +28 | +31 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · IND: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +47 Elo | BAL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3224.9 | Points scored | 27.48th of 32 |
| 18th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 24.221st of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.5 | Margin | +3.210th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.80 | Yards per play | 5.788th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.53 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3417th of 32 |
| 11th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 32 |
| 7th of 325–3 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 9th of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 15108th of 32 |
| 10th of 321556 | Elo rating | 147118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  BAL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–11 | 10–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–9 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 11–6 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.