Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Kirk CousinsPassing22/33, 248 YDS, 3 TD
- Ashton JeantyRushing19 CAR, 56 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving10 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing29/42, 255 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing13 CAR, 57 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving9 REC, 107 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:22Brock Bowers 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)35–27
- Q49:21Cody White 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–27
- Q33:20Mike Washington Jr. 36 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)22–27
- Q35:46Noah Fant 16 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)16–27
- Q36:40Juwan Johnson 1 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)16–20
- Q20:00Matt Gay 25 Yd Field Goal16–13
- Q21:54Noah Fant 3 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)13–13
- Q25:46Michael Mayer 3 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)13–6
- Q211:27Matt Gay 37 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q10:50Juwan Johnson 2 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson PAT blocked)3–6
- Q17:35Matt Gay 41 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:46Michael Mayer 3 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)LV 13 – 6 NO · LV 39% → 62% +22LV 39% → 62%+22 pts
- Q21:54Noah Fant 3 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 13 – 13 NO · NO 36% → 60% +24NO 36% → 60%+24 pts
- Q36:40Juwan Johnson 1 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 16 – 20 NO · NO 46% → 74% +28NO 46% → 74%+28 pts
- Q49:21Cody White 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)LV 28 – 27 NO · LV 17% → 51% +33LV 17% → 51%+33 pts
- Q46:22Brock Bowers 4 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)LV 35 – 27 NO · LV 53% → 92% +39LV 53% → 92%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Saints 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- NO -3.5
- ML LV +164 / NO -198
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4
- NO 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- NO: Elo 64.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- NO -176
- LV +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 20.5 – 24.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1393 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +34 | −8 | LV: Kirk Cousins, usually Geno Smith · NO: Tyler Shough (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +103 Elo | NO 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 64.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 63.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3214.2 | Points scored | 18.028th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.4 | Points allowed | 22.516th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−11.2 | Margin | −4.524th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.40 | Yards per play | 4.9627th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.04 | Yards allowed per play | 4.846th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–7 | Road vs home | 3–523rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 148028th of 32 |
| 30th of 321393 | Elo rating | 150117th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LV |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 5–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 1–0 NO in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.