New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Tyler ShoughPassing27/34, 252 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing8 CAR, 25 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving8 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing21/31, 235 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing16 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Rashod BatemanReceiving7 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:28Tyler Shough 1 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)24–17
- Q49:42Chris Olave 21 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Travis Etienne Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)17–17
- Q33:23Tyler Loop 49 Yd Field Goal9–17
- Q311:00Daniel Carlson 51 Yd Field Goal9–14
- Q20:00Daniel Carlson 47 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q20:24Rashod Bateman 22 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)3–14
- Q23:46Daniel Carlson 23 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q12:52Derrick Henry 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:52Derrick Henry 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)NO 0 – 7 BAL · BAL 73% → 86% +14BAL 73% → 86%+14 pts
- Q20:24Rashod Bateman 22 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)NO 3 – 14 BAL · BAL 80% → 93% +13BAL 80% → 93%+13 pts
- Q33:23Tyler Loop 49 Yd Field GoalNO 9 – 17 BAL · BAL 83% → 90% +7BAL 83% → 90%+7 pts
- Q49:42Chris Olave 21 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Travis Etienne Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion)NO 17 – 17 BAL · NO 6% → 39% +33NO 6% → 39%+33 pts
- Q41:28Tyler Shough 1 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)NO 24 – 17 BAL · NO 46% → >99% +54NO 46% → >99%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -8.5
- ML NO +285 / BAL -360
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -8
- BAL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 76.6%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -303
- NO +303 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 18.5 – 27.0 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −12 | +28 | NO: Tyler Shough · BAL: Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +206 Elo | BAL 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 78.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 77.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 75.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3218.0 | Points scored | 24.911th of 32 |
| 16th of 3222.5 | Points allowed | 23.418th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.5 | Margin | +1.515th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.96 | Yards per play | 5.807th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.84 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5321st of 32 |
| 16th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 32 |
| 21st of 323–6 | Road vs home | 3–626th of 32 |
| 26th of 321485 | Opponent Elo | 15166th of 32 |
| 19th of 321457 | Elo rating | 15876th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  NO |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–8 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–12 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.