Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Kirk CousinsPassing19/29, 253 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing21 CAR, 48 YDS
- Tre TuckerReceiving5 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing15/27, 192 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Omarion HamptonRushing23 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- Tre' HarrisReceiving1 REC, 53 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:41Team Safety26–14
- Q42:59Cody White 11 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)24–14
- Q33:53Cody White 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)17–14
- Q39:49Oronde Gadsden 10 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–14
- Q20:04Matt Gay 59 Yd Field Goal10–7
- Q25:26Omarion Hampton 1 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–7
- Q211:51Tre Tucker 40 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:51Tre Tucker 40 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)LV 7 – 0 LAC · LV 30% → 51% +20LV 30% → 51%+20 pts
- Q25:26Omarion Hampton 1 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)LV 7 – 7 LAC · LAC 46% → 68% +22LAC 46% → 68%+22 pts
- Q39:49Oronde Gadsden 10 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LV 10 – 14 LAC · LAC 54% → 78% +24LAC 54% → 78%+24 pts
- Q33:53Cody White 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)LV 17 – 14 LAC · LV 21% → 50% +28LV 21% → 50%+28 pts
- Q42:59Cody White 11 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick)LV 24 – 14 LAC · LV 76% → >99% +24LV 76% → >99%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -6.5
- ML LV +260 / LAC -325
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -5.5
- LAC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 69.1%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -271
- LV +271 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 18.5 – 25.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1346 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +34 | +10 | LV: Kirk Cousins, usually Geno Smith · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +140 Elo | LAC 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 70.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 73.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 3214.2 | Points scored | 21.620th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.4 | Points allowed | 20.09th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−11.2 | Margin | +1.614th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.40 | Yards per play | 5.1821st of 32 |
| 11th of 325.04 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0210th of 32 |
| 31st of 321–9 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–7 | Road vs home | 5–39th of 32 |
| 20th of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 148129th of 32 |
| 31st of 321346 | Elo rating | 147419th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LV |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–10 | 9–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 1–5 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.